Qingdao Youth Island 0-0 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 41%, yet in-form Henan Jianye provide a compelling counter-argument — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Qingdao Youth Island host Henan Jianye at Guzhenkou University Sports Center in Super League (matchday 7). Kick-off is Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 12:35 UK time.

Form Guide

Qingdao Youth Island — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Qingdao Youth Island at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Henan Jianye stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Henan Jianye's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Henan Jianye — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Qingdao Youth Island have won 2, Henan Jianye 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Aug 2025, ended Qingdao Youth Island 2–1 Henan Jianye — a Qingdao Youth Island win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Qingdao Youth Island in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Qingdao Youth Island 60% and Henan Jianye 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 57% | Henan Jianye 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Qingdao Youth Island surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Henan Jianye have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Henan Jianye surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Qingdao Youth Island recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.28 xG and Henan Jianye 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.804 / defence 0.948 | Henan Jianye attack 0.975 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.678 / away 1.155. Data: built from Qingdao Youth Island's last 36 games and Henan Jianye's last 36.

Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 41% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 31%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 2.42 | Draw 3.59 | Henan Jianye 3.24. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Qingdao Youth Island are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Henan Jianye (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Qingdao Youth Island 50% (last 10 home games) | Henan Jianye 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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