Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 46%, yet in-form Shandong Luneng provide a compelling counter-argument — this Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Shandong Luneng travel to TEDA Football Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 21 April 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 6W 2D 2L at TEDA Football Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at TEDA Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at TEDA Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shandong Luneng — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Shandong Luneng's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Shandong Luneng's 2.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Tianjin Teda's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Shandong Luneng, who boast 6 victories compared to 1 for Tianjin Teda.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Shandong Luneng winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shandong Luneng have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Key Season Stats
On the season-wide numbers, Tianjin Teda show 12W 8D 10L from 30 outings in Super League. Attacking returns: 1.3 goals per game; defensive: 1.4 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 3-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-4 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 7 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 30 games (7%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game.
In-Play Data
Tianjin Teda trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Shandong Luneng trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 57% versus Shandong Luneng 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 58% | Shandong Luneng 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.56 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.874 / defence 1.095 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.988 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.120. Data: 36 Tianjin Teda games / 36 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 46% | Draw 25% | Shandong Luneng 30%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Shandong Luneng 3.33. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shandong Luneng (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 30% | Shandong Luneng 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Apr 2026, 12:00 UTC • Managers: Tianjin Teda (Yu Genwei) | Shandong Luneng (Choi Kang-Hee) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (9 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 2 | Shandong Luneng 6W • Goals trend: 3.11 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Tianjin Teda 9 – 19 Shandong Luneng • H2H markets: BTTS 67% | Over 2.5 56% | Win rates: Tianjin Teda 11% / Draw 22% / Shandong Luneng 67% • Historical edge: Shandong Luneng dominant — 6W from 9 meetings (67% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Shandong Luneng (historical win rate 67%) but Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda as more likely (home 46% / draw 25% / away 30%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.11 goals/game (56% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.78 (52% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 67%, Poisson BTTS probability 56% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L • Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-W • Tianjin Teda home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | CS 6 • Shandong Luneng away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | CS 0 • Form edge: Shandong Luneng lead by 0.80 PPG (2.20 vs 1.40) • xG vs form (Tianjin Teda): Poisson xG of 1.56 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.40 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Shandong Luneng): Poisson projects 1.21 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.90 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.78 (52% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 56% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Shandong Luneng on PPG but Poisson rates Tianjin Teda higher (46% vs 30% for Shandong Luneng) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 46% | Draw 25% | Shandong Luneng 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.56 / Shandong Luneng 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.874 / def 1.095 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.988 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.700 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Shandong Luneng xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:00 on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 2 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 46% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng?
• Record (9 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 2 | Shandong Luneng 6W • Goals trend: 3.11 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Tianjin Teda 9 – 19 Shandong Luneng • H2H markets: BTTS 67% | Over 2.5 56% | Win rates: Tianjin Teda 11% / Draw 22% / Shandong Luneng 67% • Historical edge: Shandong Luneng dominant — 6W from 9 meetings (67% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Shandong Luneng (historical win rate 67%) but Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda as more likely (home 46% / draw 25% / away 30%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.11 goals/game (56% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.78 (52% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 67%, Poisson BTTS probability 56% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng in?
• Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L • Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-W • Tianjin Teda home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | CS 6 • Shandong Luneng away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | CS 0 • Form edge: Shandong Luneng lead by 0.80 PPG (2.20 vs 1.40) • xG vs form (Tianjin Teda): Poisson xG of 1.56 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.40 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Shandong Luneng): Poisson projects 1.21 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.90 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.78 (52% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 56% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Shandong Luneng on PPG but Poisson rates Tianjin Teda higher (46% vs 30% for Shandong Luneng) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture