📋

Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Chongqing Tongliang Long fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

SHANGHAI SIPG and Chongqing Tongliang Long meet at Pudong Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Current Form

SHANGHAI SIPG's overall Super League record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

SHANGHAI SIPG at Pudong Football Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Season Stats

The hosts have accumulated 20W 6D 4L from their 30 Super League appearances this term. They average 2.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 15 of 30 games (50%). Penalties this season: 6 scored / 0 missed from 6 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.07 reds per game.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.59 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.150 / defence 1.036 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.774 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.120. Data: 36 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 6 Chongqing Tongliang Long games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 54% | Draw 25% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 21%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 4.76. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.