Qingdao Jonoon 0-0 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Qingdao Youth Island make the trip to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to face Qingdao Jonoon in Super League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Qingdao Jonoon's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Qingdao Youth Island's overall Super League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Qingdao Youth Island away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Qingdao Jonoon against 1.30 for Qingdao Youth Island. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Qingdao Jonoon lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jun 2025, ended 0–1 with Qingdao Youth Island winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Qingdao Jonoon half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
Qingdao Youth Island half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 43% versus Qingdao Youth Island 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 42% | Qingdao Youth Island 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 2.06 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.854 / defence 1.149 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.890 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.842 / away 1.182. Qingdao Youth Island bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing Qingdao Jonoon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Qingdao Jonoon games / 35 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 57% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Youth Island 22%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Qingdao Youth Island 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Qingdao Jonoon (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Qingdao Jonoon are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Qingdao Jonoon 50% | Qingdao Youth Island 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 Apr 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 57% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Youth Island 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 2.06 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.854 / def 1.149 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.890 / def 1.313 | league avg home 1.842 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Qingdao Youth Island xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 17 April 2026 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Qingdao Jonoon 0 - 0 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 57% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (4 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 1W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Youth Island 2W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating (0.85) and Qingdao Youth Island's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 2.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Qingdao Youth Island's attack (0.89x) against Qingdao Jonoon's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
57%
1.75
21%
4.75
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
3.27
1.21
Qingdao Youth Island xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
13%
7.88
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
3%
36.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.21 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Qingdao Jonoon's recent record stands at 13W 15D 32L from 60 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Qingdao Youth Island, meanwhile, have gone 18W 18D 24L across 60 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for Qingdao Jonoon against 1.20 for Qingdao Youth Island. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Qingdao Jonoon have managed 10W 9D 11L from 30 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Qingdao Youth Island's away record stands at 9W 6D 15L across 30 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.33 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 13W 15D 32L in their last 60 games (0.90 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 18W 18D 24L in their last 60 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.30 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Qingdao Youth Island — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Qingdao Jonoon
2
Draws
3
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 6 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Qingdao Youth Island have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 2-0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Qingdao Youth Island?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 50%, Qingdao Youth Island 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 63% (Qingdao Youth Island).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 30% of games; Qingdao Youth Island in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Qingdao Youth Island?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Qingdao Jonoon's games and 60% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 63% of Qingdao Youth Island's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Qingdao Youth Island tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Qingdao Jonoon's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon and Qingdao Youth Island finished level at 0-0 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 2.06 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.21 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Qingdao Youth Island landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.89 / defence 1.31, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 57% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Youth Island 22%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 42%, Qingdao Youth Island 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.90 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.