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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Qingdao Youth Island make the trip to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to face Qingdao Jonoon in Super League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form

Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Qingdao Jonoon's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Qingdao Youth Island's overall Super League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Qingdao Youth Island away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Qingdao Jonoon against 1.30 for Qingdao Youth Island. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Qingdao Jonoon lead 2W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Jun 2025, ended 0–1 with Qingdao Youth Island winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Stats

Across 30 matches this season, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 5W 10D 15L. They average 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Biggest win: 5-1 (H) / 2-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 4 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 12 games this season. 4 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 30 games (13%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards per game, 0.20 reds per game.

Trading

Qingdao Jonoon half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 45% of games.

Qingdao Youth Island half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 43% versus Qingdao Youth Island 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 42% | Qingdao Youth Island 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 2.06 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.854 / defence 1.149 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.890 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.842 / away 1.182. Qingdao Youth Island bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing Qingdao Jonoon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Qingdao Jonoon games / 35 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 57% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Youth Island 22%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Qingdao Youth Island 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Qingdao Jonoon (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Qingdao Jonoon are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Qingdao Jonoon 50% | Qingdao Youth Island 50%.

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