Poisson model rates Dalian Zhixing at 55%, yet in-form Henan Jianye provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Henan Jianye travel to Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium to take on Dalian Zhixing. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalian Zhixing stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Dalian Zhixing have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Dalian Zhixing are significantly better at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Henan Jianye — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Henan Jianye's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Henan Jianye are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Dalian Zhixing, 1 for Henan Jianye and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 0–4 with Henan Jianye winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Key Season Stats
On the season-wide numbers, Dalian Zhixing show 9W 9D 12L from 30 outings in Super League. They average 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (7 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 30 games (3%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards per game, 0.10 reds per game.
Across 30 matches this season, Henan Jianye have gone 10W 7D 13L. They average 1.7 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 2-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 7 of 30 games (23%). Penalties this season: 10 scored / 0 missed from 10 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards per game, 0.07 reds per game.
Henan Jianye have been the more prolific side this season at 1.70 goals per game compared to 1.00 for the hosts. Dalian Zhixing lead on clean sheets this season (8 vs 5). Henan Jianye score 2+ goals far more often (23% vs 3%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Dalian Zhixing 2/2 vs Henan Jianye 10/10 this season.
In-Play Profile
Dalian Zhixing in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Zhixing 40% versus Henan Jianye 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Zhixing 33% | Henan Jianye 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.54 xG and Henan Jianye 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 1.006 / defence 0.719 | Henan Jianye attack 0.968 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.150. Dalian Zhixing's defence rating of 0.719 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Dalian Zhixing games / 35 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 55% | Draw 26% | Henan Jianye 20%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Henan Jianye 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Dalian Zhixing (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dalian Zhixing are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Henan Jianye (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Zhixing 10% | Henan Jianye 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 11:00 UTC • Managers: Dalian Zhixing (Li Guoxu) | Henan Jianye (Daniel Ramos) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (2 meetings): Dalian Zhixing 1W | Draws 0 | Henan Jianye 1W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Dalian Zhixing 1 – 4 Henan Jianye • H2H markets: BTTS 0% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Dalian Zhixing 50% / Draw 0% / Henan Jianye 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 55% / draw 26% / away 20% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.34 (41% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS corroboration (No): H2H BTTS rate only 0%, Poisson BTTS probability 43% — clean-sheet tendency backed by both data sources
📈 Recent Form
• Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-L • Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D • Dalian Zhixing home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | CS 5 • Henan Jianye away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | CS 1 • Form edge: Henan Jianye lead by 1.10 PPG (1.80 vs 0.70) • xG vs form (Dalian Zhixing): Poisson projects 1.54 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.80 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Henan Jianye): Poisson projects 0.80 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.60 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~1.9 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.34 (41% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~45% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 43% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Henan Jianye on PPG but Poisson rates Dalian Zhixing higher (55% vs 20% for Henan Jianye) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 55% | Draw 26% | Henan Jianye 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.54 / Henan Jianye 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 1.006 / def 0.719 | Henan Jianye attack 0.968 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Dalian Zhixing (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Henan Jianye xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye?
Dalian Zhixing 2 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 55% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dalian Zhixing the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Henan Jianye?
• Record (2 meetings): Dalian Zhixing 1W | Draws 0 | Henan Jianye 1W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Dalian Zhixing 1 – 4 Henan Jianye • H2H markets: BTTS 0% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Dalian Zhixing 50% / Draw 0% / Henan Jianye 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 55% / draw 26% / away 20% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.34 (41% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS corroboration (No): H2H BTTS rate only 0%, Poisson BTTS probability 43% — clean-sheet tendency backed by both data sources
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Henan Jianye in?
• Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-L • Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D • Dalian Zhixing home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | CS 5 • Henan Jianye away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | CS 1 • Form edge: Henan Jianye lead by 1.10 PPG (1.80 vs 0.70) • xG vs form (Dalian Zhixing): Poisson projects 1.54 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.80 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Henan Jianye): Poisson projects 0.80 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.60 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~1.9 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.34 (41% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~45% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 43% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Henan Jianye on PPG but Poisson rates Dalian Zhixing higher (55% vs 20% for Henan Jianye) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture