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Poisson model favours Shanghai Shenhua (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shanghai Shenhua face Qingdao Jonoon.

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Full Analysis

Shanghai Stadium plays host to Shanghai Shenhua versus Qingdao Jonoon in Super League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form

Shanghai Shenhua (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Shanghai Stadium, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Qingdao Jonoon's overall Super League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Qingdao Jonoon's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form ledger tips toward Shanghai Shenhua. A 0.80 PPG lead over Qingdao Jonoon (1.90 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

Across 7 previous meetings, Shanghai Shenhua are the stronger side on paper — 7 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.

The historical record gives Shanghai Shenhua a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Statistical Overview

Shanghai Shenhua's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 19W 7D 4L from 30 matches. Their scoring output is 2.2 per match with 1.2 conceded on average. Biggest win: 6-1 (H) / 0-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 3-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 4 away). Scored 2+ goals in 14 of 30 games (47%). Penalties this season: 6 scored / 0 missed from 6 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-1-2. Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards per game.

Qingdao Jonoon have played 30 games this season, recording 5W 10D 15L. Attacking returns: 1.2 goals per game; defensive: 1.6 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 5-1 (H) / 2-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 4 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 12 games this season. 4 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 30 games (13%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards per game, 0.20 reds per game.

Shanghai Shenhua have the stronger attack on season averages, scoring 2.20 per game versus 1.20 for the visitors. Shanghai Shenhua have the superior defensive numbers, conceding 1.20 per game against Qingdao Jonoon's 1.60. Shanghai Shenhua lead on clean sheets this season (8 vs 4). Qingdao Jonoon are averaging significantly more yellow cards per game this season — a risk factor worth noting for card markets. Shanghai Shenhua score 2+ goals far more often (47% vs 13%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Shanghai Shenhua 6/6 vs Qingdao Jonoon 4/4 this season.

Trading

Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Qingdao Jonoon half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 45% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 58% versus Qingdao Jonoon 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 65% | Qingdao Jonoon 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 2.06 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.324 / defence 1.053 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.881 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.129. Shanghai Shenhua carry an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 Shanghai Shenhua games / 36 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 61% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Jonoon 18%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Qingdao Jonoon 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Shanghai Shenhua 60% | Qingdao Jonoon 40%.

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