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Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Qingdao Youth Island host Henan Jianye at Guzhenkou University Sports Center in Super League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Form Guide

Qingdao Youth Island — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Qingdao Youth Island at Guzhenkou University Sports Center this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Henan Jianye's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Henan Jianye — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Qingdao Youth Island have won 2, Henan Jianye 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Qingdao Youth Island winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Team Stats

Qingdao Youth Island have played 30 games this season, recording 10W 10D 10L. Their scoring output is 1.3 per match with 1.4 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-5 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 8 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (6 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 30 games (10%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game, 0.10 reds per game.

Henan Jianye's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 10W 7D 13L from 30 matches. They average 1.7 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 2-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 7 of 30 games (23%). Penalties this season: 10 scored / 0 missed from 10 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards per game, 0.07 reds per game.

Henan Jianye have been the more prolific side this season at 1.70 goals per game compared to 1.30 for the hosts. Qingdao Youth Island lead on clean sheets this season (8 vs 5). Penalty activity: Qingdao Youth Island 4/4 vs Henan Jianye 10/10 this season.

In-Play Profile

Qingdao Youth Island in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Qingdao Youth Island 60% and Henan Jianye 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 57% | Henan Jianye 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.28 xG and Henan Jianye 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.804 / defence 0.948 | Henan Jianye attack 0.975 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.678 / away 1.155. Data: 36 Qingdao Youth Island games / 36 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 41% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 31%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Henan Jianye 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Qingdao Youth Island are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Henan Jianye (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Qingdao Youth Island 50% | Henan Jianye 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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