Shanghai Shenhua 3-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Shanghai Shenhua welcome Hangzhou Greentown to Shanghai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 July 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Odds Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua are the shorter-priced side — market prices: Shanghai Shenhua 1.62 (57%) | Draw 4.33 (21%) | Hangzhou Greentown 4.37 (21%).
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Shanghai Stadium, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Shanghai Shenhua are significantly better at Shanghai Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Hangzhou Greentown — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Shanghai Shenhua 1.20 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Shanghai Shenhua, 2 for Hangzhou Greentown and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Shanghai Shenhua in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shanghai Shenhua 70% and Hangzhou Greentown 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shanghai Shenhua 70% | Hangzhou Greentown 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 2.08 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.093 / defence 1.156 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.024 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.360. Data: 46 Shanghai Shenhua games / 46 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 49% | Draw 21% | Hangzhou Greentown 30%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 2.04 | Draw 4.76 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.33. Shanghai Shenhua hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. The model sees Shanghai Shenhua as less likely than the market's pricing reflects — Poisson 49% versus the market's fair-implied 57% (priced at 1.62). The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting. The market (1.36, fair-implied 69%) is broadly in line with the Poisson probability.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Shanghai Shenhua 70% | Hangzhou Greentown 50% BTTS from recent games. Market pricing (1.40, fair-implied 66%) is broadly in line with the Poisson read on BTTS.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Jul 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 49% | Draw 21% | Hangzhou Greentown 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 2.08 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.093 / def 1.156 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.024 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• 1X2 market: Shanghai Shenhua 1.62 (impl 57%) | Draw 4.33 (impl 21%) | Hangzhou Greentown 4.37 (impl 21%) • Market favourite: Shanghai Shenhua at 1.62 • Poisson vs market: same direction (Shanghai Shenhua) but Poisson rates them at 49% vs market implied 57% — model sees a 8pp premium worth monitoring • Shanghai Shenhua Win: Poisson 49% vs market fair-implied 57% (9pp gap) — the model sees Shanghai Shenhua as less likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Hangzhou Greentown Win: Poisson 30% vs market fair-implied 21% (9pp gap) — the model sees Hangzhou Greentown as more likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Goals market: Over 2.5 1.36 (impl 74%) / Under 2.5 3.01 (impl 33%) | Poisson Over 2.5 probability 71% • BTTS market: BTTS Yes 1.40 (impl 71%) / No 2.71 (impl 37%) | Poisson BTTS probability 70%
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Hangzhou Greentown xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 11:35 on Sunday 5 July 2026 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Shanghai Shenhua 3 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 49% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 30% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (9 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 4W | Draws 3 | Hangzhou Greentown 2W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown?
1X2 market: Shanghai Shenhua 1.62 (impl 57%) | Draw 4.33 (impl 21%) | Hangzhou Greentown 4.37 (impl 21%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shanghai Shenhua's attack at 1.09x the league average against Hangzhou Greentown's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Shanghai Shenhua's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
49%
2.05
21%
4.74
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
3.69
1.61
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.34
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
12%
8.03
Win to Nil
10%
10.26
4%
26.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.61 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shanghai Shenhua's recent record stands at 26W 12D 8L from 46 games, a 1.96 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown, meanwhile, have gone 16W 16D 14L across 46 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shanghai Shenhua by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hangzhou Greentown heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shanghai Shenhua have managed 14W 6D 3L from 23 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record stands at 7W 5D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.76 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shanghai Shenhua have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Hangzhou Greentown in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 26W 12D 8L in their last 46 games (1.96 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 16W 16D 14L in their last 46 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 2.09 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2024, when Shanghai Shenhua won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shanghai Shenhua's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shanghai Shenhua
3
Draws
2
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 10 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 5, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 3-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 74%, Hangzhou Greentown 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Shanghai Shenhua and 70% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Shanghai Shenhua's games and 52% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Shanghai Shenhua's matches and 70% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Hangzhou Greentown 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Hangzhou Greentown 3-2 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 2.08 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.61 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.09 / defence 1.16 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.02 / defence 1.12, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 49% | Draw 21% | Hangzhou Greentown 30%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 70%, Hangzhou Greentown 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.