Poisson model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long at 46%, yet in-form Qingdao Jonoon provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chongqing Tongliang Long host Qingdao Jonoon at Tongliang Long Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 October 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Chongqing Tongliang Long — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Tongliang Long, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chongqing Tongliang Long's home record at Tongliang Long Stadium: 4W 4D 1L from 9 Super League appearances (1.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.78 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Chongqing Tongliang Long are significantly better at Tongliang Long Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Qingdao Jonoon — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Chongqing Tongliang Long, 0 for Qingdao Jonoon and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Chongqing Tongliang Long winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Team Stats
Chongqing Tongliang Long have played 18 games this season, recording 7W 7D 4L. They average 1.2 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 3-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 7 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 18 games (6%). Penalties this season: 0 scored / 1 missed from 1 awarded. Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards per game, 0.11 reds per game.
Across 17 matches this season, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 6W 3D 8L. They average 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-4 (H) / 4-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 4 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 2 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 17 games (29%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.
Qingdao Jonoon have been the more prolific side this season at 1.60 goals per game compared to 1.20 for the hosts. Chongqing Tongliang Long have the superior defensive numbers, conceding 1.10 per game against Qingdao Jonoon's 1.60. Chongqing Tongliang Long lead on clean sheets this season (7 vs 2). Qingdao Jonoon score 2+ goals far more often (29% vs 6%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Chongqing Tongliang Long 0/1 vs Qingdao Jonoon 1/1 this season.
Table Context
The standings have Chongqing Tongliang Long (2nd, 28 pts) 12 places above Qingdao Jonoon (14th, 14 pts) — a 14-point gap in Super League.
On home turf, Chongqing Tongliang Long's Super League record reads 4W 4D 1L this term. Away from home, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 1W 1D 6L in Super League this season. Chongqing Tongliang Long: Promotion - AFC Champions League 2.
Trading Patterns
Chongqing Tongliang Long in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chongqing Tongliang Long 56% and Qingdao Jonoon 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chongqing Tongliang Long 39% | Qingdao Jonoon 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.59 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.808 / defence 0.912 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.987 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 18 Chongqing Tongliang Long games / 47 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 46% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Jonoon 29%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.45. Chongqing Tongliang Long hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chongqing Tongliang Long are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Qingdao Jonoon (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chongqing Tongliang Long offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Chongqing Tongliang Long 56% | Qingdao Jonoon 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Tongliang Long Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 07:30 UTC • Managers: Chongqing Tongliang Long (Salvador Suay) | Qingdao Jonoon (Li Xiaopeng) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (1 meetings): Chongqing Tongliang Long 1W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Jonoon 0W • Goals trend: 1.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Chongqing Tongliang Long 1 – 0 Qingdao Jonoon • H2H markets: BTTS 0% | Over 2.5 0% | Win rates: Chongqing Tongliang Long 100% / Draw 0% / Qingdao Jonoon 0% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 46% / draw 25% / away 29% • Goals contradiction: H2H averages only 1.00 goals/game but Poisson total xG is 2.82 (53% Over probability) — this season's attack strengths have improved relative to the historical pattern • BTTS: H2H rate 0%, Poisson probability 56% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Chongqing Tongliang Long (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D • Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D • Chongqing Tongliang Long home split: 1.78 PPG from 9 | GF 1.44 / GA 1.00 | CS 4 • Qingdao Jonoon away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | CS 0 • Form edge: Qingdao Jonoon lead by 0.60 PPG (1.60 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (Chongqing Tongliang Long): Poisson xG of 1.59 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.44 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Qingdao Jonoon): Poisson projects 1.23 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.60 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.3 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.82 (53% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~68% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 56% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Qingdao Jonoon on PPG but Poisson rates Chongqing Tongliang Long higher (46% vs 29% for Qingdao Jonoon) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 46% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Jonoon 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.59 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.808 / def 0.912 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.987 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Chongqing Tongliang Long (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Qingdao Jonoon xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon is scheduled to kick off at 07:30 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Tongliang Long Stadium.
Where is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Tongliang Long Stadium.
What competition is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Tongliang Long a 46% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chongqing Tongliang Long the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Chongqing Tongliang Long and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Qingdao Jonoon?
• Record (1 meetings): Chongqing Tongliang Long 1W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Jonoon 0W • Goals trend: 1.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Chongqing Tongliang Long 1 – 0 Qingdao Jonoon • H2H markets: BTTS 0% | Over 2.5 0% | Win rates: Chongqing Tongliang Long 100% / Draw 0% / Qingdao Jonoon 0% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 46% / draw 25% / away 29% • Goals contradiction: H2H averages only 1.00 goals/game but Poisson total xG is 2.82 (53% Over probability) — this season's attack strengths have improved relative to the historical pattern • BTTS: H2H rate 0%, Poisson probability 56% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Qingdao Jonoon in?
• Chongqing Tongliang Long (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D • Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D • Chongqing Tongliang Long home split: 1.78 PPG from 9 | GF 1.44 / GA 1.00 | CS 4 • Qingdao Jonoon away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | CS 0 • Form edge: Qingdao Jonoon lead by 0.60 PPG (1.60 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (Chongqing Tongliang Long): Poisson xG of 1.59 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.44 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Qingdao Jonoon): Poisson projects 1.23 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.60 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.3 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.82 (53% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~68% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 56% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Qingdao Jonoon on PPG but Poisson rates Chongqing Tongliang Long higher (46% vs 29% for Qingdao Jonoon) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture