Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chongqing Tongliang Long host Qingdao Jonoon at Tongliang Long Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 October 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Chongqing Tongliang Long — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Tongliang Long, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chongqing Tongliang Long's home record at Tongliang Long Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Chongqing Tongliang Long are significantly better at Tongliang Long Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chongqing Tongliang Long at 0.70 PPG versus Qingdao Jonoon's 0.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chongqing Tongliang Long register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Chongqing Tongliang Long, 0 for Qingdao Jonoon and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Chongqing Tongliang Long winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Chongqing Tongliang Long in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chongqing Tongliang Long 52% and Qingdao Jonoon 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chongqing Tongliang Long 32% | Qingdao Jonoon 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.70 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.743 / defence 1.013 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.898 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.404. Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 1.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Qingdao Jonoon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.338 — this is suppressing Chongqing Tongliang Long's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Chongqing Tongliang Long games / 55 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 47% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Jonoon 28%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.57. Chongqing Tongliang Long hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chongqing Tongliang Long are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chongqing Tongliang Long offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Chongqing Tongliang Long 60% | Qingdao Jonoon 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Tongliang Long Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 47% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Jonoon 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.70 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.743 / def 1.013 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.898 / def 1.338 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Chongqing Tongliang Long (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Qingdao Jonoon xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon is scheduled to kick off at 07:30 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Tongliang Long Stadium.
Where is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Tongliang Long Stadium.
What competition is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Tongliang Long a 47% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Chongqing Tongliang Long the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Chongqing Tongliang Long and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (1 meetings): Chongqing Tongliang Long 1W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Jonoon 0W.
What form are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Chongqing Tongliang Long (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack at 0.74x the league average against Qingdao Jonoon's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Chongqing Tongliang Long's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chongqing Tongliang Long Win
47%
2.12
24%
4.09
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Total xG
2.98
1.28
Qingdao Jonoon xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
18%
5.49
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
5%
19.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1.28 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chongqing Tongliang Long's recent record stands at 7W 10D 8L from 25 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Chongqing Tongliang Long is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Jonoon, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 16L across 25 games — 0.84 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chongqing Tongliang Long by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Jonoon heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chongqing Tongliang Long have managed 4W 5D 3L from 12 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record stands at 1W 1D 10L across 12 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chongqing Tongliang Long come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chongqing Tongliang Long are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.32 scored and 2.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Jonoon in 68%.
Last 25 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Chongqing Tongliang Long have gone 7W 10D 8L in their last 25 games (1.24 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 6W 3D 16L in their last 25 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chongqing Tongliang Long at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Chongqing Tongliang Long's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chongqing Tongliang Long at home: 1.42 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Chongqing Tongliang Long or Qingdao Jonoon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chongqing Tongliang Long have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Qingdao Jonoon in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Qingdao Jonoon runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Chongqing Tongliang Long
0
Draws
0
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 1 meetings on record, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 1, Qingdao Jonoon have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chongqing Tongliang Long and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Who has won more matches between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Qingdao Jonoon?
Chongqing Tongliang Long have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chongqing Tongliang Long see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Chongqing Tongliang Long at 58%, Qingdao Jonoon at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Chongqing Tongliang Long) and 67% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Chongqing Tongliang Long keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chongqing Tongliang Long home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chongqing Tongliang Long play Qingdao Jonoon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Chongqing Tongliang Long's games and 75% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Chongqing Tongliang Long's recent games and 67% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chongqing Tongliang Long and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Chongqing Tongliang Long have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.