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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown encounter.

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Analysis

Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form

Shandong Luneng (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Shandong Luneng at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Shandong Luneng against 1.40 for Hangzhou Greentown. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Shandong Luneng 5W, Hangzhou Greentown 3W, 2D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2026, ended 1–4 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Statistical Overview

Shandong Luneng's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 9W 3D 6L from 18 matches. Attacking returns: 1.9 goals per game; defensive: 1.7 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 2 clean sheets this season (1 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 18 games (33%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 3-4-2-1. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game, 0.11 reds per game.

On the season-wide numbers, Hangzhou Greentown show 6W 4D 7L from 17 outings in Super League. They average 1.4 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-5 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 17 games (12%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 1 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.

Shandong Luneng have the stronger attack on season averages, scoring 1.90 per game versus 1.40 for the visitors. Hangzhou Greentown lead on clean sheets this season (3 vs 2). Shandong Luneng score 2+ goals far more often (33% vs 12%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Shandong Luneng 4/4 vs Hangzhou Greentown 2/3 this season.

League Table

Shandong Luneng hold the table advantage, sitting 4th with 24 points — 7 positions and 7 points clear of Hangzhou Greentown in 11th.

On home turf, Shandong Luneng's Super League record reads 5W 3D 1L this term. Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 1D 5L on their travels.

Trading Data

Shandong Luneng goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.

Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shandong Luneng 74% and Hangzhou Greentown 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shandong Luneng 77% | Hangzhou Greentown 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 2.64 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.307 / defence 1.118 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.051 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 2.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 Shandong Luneng games / 47 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 60% | Draw 18% | Hangzhou Greentown 22%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.67 | Draw 5.56 | Hangzhou Greentown 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (60%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.24. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.24 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.64 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 4.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shandong Luneng 90% | Hangzhou Greentown 50% BTTS from recent games.

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