Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 28 as Beijing Guoan welcome Qingdao Youth Island to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 October 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Beijing Guoan have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 5W 2D 3L at — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Qingdao Youth Island — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Youth Island's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Beijing Guoan at 1.80 PPG versus Qingdao Youth Island's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Beijing Guoan register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Beijing Guoan: 4 wins from 7 previous clashes against 0 for Qingdao Youth Island, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Beijing Guoan and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Team Stats
Beijing Guoan have played 17 games this season, recording 7W 5D 5L. They average 1.7 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-4 (H) / 2-1 (A). Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 1 game this season. 6 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 17 games (24%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 1 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards per game, 0.06 reds per game.
Across 18 matches this season, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 5W 9D 4L. Attacking returns: 1.2 goals per game; defensive: 1.6 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 2-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: – (H) / 5-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 7 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 18 games (17%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 2 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-1-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.11 reds per game.
Beijing Guoan have the stronger attack on season averages, scoring 1.70 per game versus 1.20 for the visitors. Beijing Guoan lead on clean sheets this season (6 vs 3). Penalty activity: Beijing Guoan 3/4 vs Qingdao Youth Island 3/5 this season.
Table Standings
In the Super League table, Qingdao Youth Island sit 6th on 24 points, 1 place and 3 points ahead of Beijing Guoan in 7th.
On home turf, Beijing Guoan's Super League record reads 4W 2D 3L this term. Away from home, Qingdao Youth Island have posted 2W 3D 4L in Super League this season.
In-Play Data
Beijing Guoan trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Qingdao Youth Island trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 64% and Qingdao Youth Island 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 66% | Qingdao Youth Island 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.05 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.073 / defence 0.956 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.902 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 47 Beijing Guoan games / 48 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 58% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Youth Island 21%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | Qingdao Youth Island 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 70% | Qingdao Youth Island 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC • Managers: Beijing Guoan (Quique Setién) | Qingdao Youth Island (Shao Jiayi) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (7 meetings): Beijing Guoan 4W | Draws 3 | Qingdao Youth Island 0W • Goals trend: 3.57 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Beijing Guoan 17 – 8 Qingdao Youth Island • H2H markets: BTTS 86% | Over 2.5 71% | Win rates: Beijing Guoan 57% / Draw 43% / Qingdao Youth Island 0% • Historical edge: Beijing Guoan dominant — 4W from 7 meetings (57% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — Beijing Guoan favoured. H2H win rate 57%, Poisson win probability 58% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.57 goals/game (71% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.23 (63% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 86%, Poisson BTTS probability 60% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W • Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-L • Beijing Guoan home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | CS 3 • Qingdao Youth Island away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Beijing Guoan 1.80 PPG vs Qingdao Youth Island 1.70 PPG) • xG vs form (Beijing Guoan): Poisson xG of 2.05 aligns with form scoring rate of 2.20 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Qingdao Youth Island): Poisson xG of 1.17 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.5 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.23 (63% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Beijing Guoan 7/10, Qingdao Youth Island 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 60% — all signals aligned
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 58% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Youth Island 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 60% | xG Beijing Guoan 2.05 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.073 / def 0.956 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.902 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (58%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Qingdao Youth Island xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score probability matrix is a Premium feature
Upgrade to see the exact probability of every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6, not just the headline 1X2 split.
Upgrade to Premium⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 18 October 2026.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 58% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island?
• Record (7 meetings): Beijing Guoan 4W | Draws 3 | Qingdao Youth Island 0W • Goals trend: 3.57 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Beijing Guoan 17 – 8 Qingdao Youth Island • H2H markets: BTTS 86% | Over 2.5 71% | Win rates: Beijing Guoan 57% / Draw 43% / Qingdao Youth Island 0% • Historical edge: Beijing Guoan dominant — 4W from 7 meetings (57% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — Beijing Guoan favoured. H2H win rate 57%, Poisson win probability 58% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.57 goals/game (71% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.23 (63% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 86%, Poisson BTTS probability 60% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island in?
• Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W • Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-L • Beijing Guoan home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | CS 3 • Qingdao Youth Island away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Beijing Guoan 1.80 PPG vs Qingdao Youth Island 1.70 PPG) • xG vs form (Beijing Guoan): Poisson xG of 2.05 aligns with form scoring rate of 2.20 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Qingdao Youth Island): Poisson xG of 1.17 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.5 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.23 (63% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Beijing Guoan 7/10, Qingdao Youth Island 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 60% — all signals aligned
What do the betting odds say about Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture