Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Yunnan Yukun at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Yunnan Yukun host Chongqing Tongliang Long at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Yunnan Yukun have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yunnan Yukun at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chongqing Tongliang Long stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Tongliang Long, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chongqing Tongliang Long's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Yunnan Yukun have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Yunnan Yukun, 0 for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Yunnan Yukun in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Chongqing Tongliang Long in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 76% and Chongqing Tongliang Long 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 84% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.75 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.185 / defence 1.057 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.619 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.404. Data: 55 Yunnan Yukun games / 25 Chongqing Tongliang Long games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 57% | Draw 24% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 19%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Yunnan Yukun (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Yunnan Yukun at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Yunnan Yukun 70% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 57% | Draw 24% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Yunnan Yukun 1.75 / Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.185 / def 1.057 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.619 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is scheduled to kick off at 11:35 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 57% chance of winning, Chongqing Tongliang Long a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Chongqing Tongliang Long will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Record (1 meetings): Yunnan Yukun 0W | Draws 1 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 0W.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Chongqing Tongliang Long in?
Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Chongqing Tongliang Long (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Yunnan Yukun's attack rating (1.19) and Chongqing Tongliang Long's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack versus Yunnan Yukun's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Yunnan Yukun Win
57%
1.77
24%
4.14
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
2.67
0.92
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
3%
29.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.2 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Chongqing Tongliang Long expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 0.92 for Chongqing Tongliang Long, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Yunnan Yukun come into this having played 25 games, going 10W 5D 10L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Yunnan Yukun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chongqing Tongliang Long sit at 1.24 PPG from 25 outings (7W 10D 8L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Chongqing Tongliang Long is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Yunnan Yukun on 1.40 PPG, Chongqing Tongliang Long on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Yunnan Yukun's home form reads 7W 2D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Yunnan Yukun are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Chongqing Tongliang Long have taken 1.08 points per game from 12 outings (3W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yunnan Yukun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; Chongqing Tongliang Long are on 1.04 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Blended
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Chongqing Tongliang Long in coming into this match?
Yunnan Yukun have gone 10W 5D 10L in their last 25 games (1.40 PPG), while Chongqing Tongliang Long have gone 7W 10D 8L in their last 25 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yunnan Yukun at home or Chongqing Tongliang Long away?
Yunnan Yukun's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yunnan Yukun at home: 1.92 PPG; Chongqing Tongliang Long away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Yunnan Yukun or Chongqing Tongliang Long been keeping clean sheets recently?
Yunnan Yukun have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Chongqing Tongliang Long in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Yunnan Yukun and Chongqing Tongliang Long runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 20 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Yunnan Yukun
1
Draws
0
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
From 1 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 0, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Chongqing Tongliang Long last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Chongqing Tongliang Long 0-0 Yunnan Yukun.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Chongqing Tongliang Long see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yunnan Yukun 67%, Chongqing Tongliang Long 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Yunnan Yukun) and 33% (Chongqing Tongliang Long). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chongqing Tongliang Long in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Chongqing Tongliang Long away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yunnan Yukun play Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Yunnan Yukun's games and 50% of Chongqing Tongliang Long's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Yunnan Yukun's matches and 33% of Chongqing Tongliang Long's.
Do Yunnan Yukun and Chongqing Tongliang Long tend to score early?
Yunnan Yukun have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Chongqing Tongliang Long in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.