📋

Poisson model rates Dalian Zhixing at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Dalian Zhixing host Sichuan Jiuniu at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Dalian Zhixing — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Dalian Zhixing at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Dalian Zhixing are significantly better at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sichuan Jiuniu stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sichuan Jiuniu's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dalian Zhixing at 1.00 PPG versus Sichuan Jiuniu's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Dalian Zhixing have won 1, Sichuan Jiuniu 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Team Stats

Dalian Zhixing have played 17 games this season, recording 8W 1D 8L. Their scoring output is 1.5 per match with 1.8 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-4 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 2 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 17 games (18%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game.

Table Standings

In the Super League table, Dalian Zhixing sit 3rd on 25 points, 6 places and 5 points ahead of Sichuan Jiuniu in 9th.

On home turf, Dalian Zhixing's Super League record reads 6W 0D 3L this term. Away from home, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 1W 1D 6L in Super League this season.

In-Play Profile

Dalian Zhixing in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

Sichuan Jiuniu in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Zhixing 47% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Zhixing 45% | Sichuan Jiuniu 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.92 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 1.006 / defence 1.121 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.707 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 47 Dalian Zhixing games / 48 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 57% | Draw 22% | Sichuan Jiuniu 21%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Sichuan Jiuniu 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Dalian Zhixing (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Dalian Zhixing are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Dalian Zhixing 50% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights