📋

Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Henan Jianye host Tianjin Teda at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 October 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Henan Jianye's home record at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Tianjin Teda — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Henan Jianye at 1.30 PPG versus Tianjin Teda's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Key Season Stats

On the season-wide numbers, Henan Jianye show 6W 3D 8L from 17 outings in Super League. Their scoring output is 1.1 per match with 1.3 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 17 games (6%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 1 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards per game.

Tianjin Teda's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 4W 6D 7L from 17 matches. Their scoring output is 1.3 per match with 1.3 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 3-0 (A). Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 4 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 17 games (18%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 1 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.

Tianjin Teda lead on clean sheets this season (4 vs 3). Penalty activity: Henan Jianye 2/3 vs Tianjin Teda 4/5 this season.

Standings Snapshot

Henan Jianye hold the table advantage, sitting 13th with 15 points — 2 positions and 7 points clear of Tianjin Teda in 15th.

At home this season, Henan Jianye have gone 3W 1D 4L. Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 3D 3L on their travels. Tianjin Teda: Relegation - League One.

In-Play Profile

Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).

Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 66% and Tianjin Teda 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 64% | Tianjin Teda 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.10 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.763 / defence 0.983 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.924 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Henan Jianye's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Henan Jianye games / 47 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 33% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 39%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Tianjin Teda 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Henan Jianye 50% | Tianjin Teda 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.