Henan Jianye 0-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Tianjin Teda (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Henan Jianye face Tianjin Teda.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Henan Jianye host Tianjin Teda at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 October 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 2W 7D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's home record at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Tianjin Teda — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Tianjin Teda have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 9 encounters against Henan Jianye's 2 victories.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Henan Jianye winning.
It is worth noting that Tianjin Teda have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 68% and Tianjin Teda 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 61% | Tianjin Teda 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 0.85 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.806 / defence 0.812 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.867 / defence 0.625. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.402. Tianjin Teda's defence strength of 0.625 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Henan Jianye games / 57 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 29% | Draw 36% | Tianjin Teda 36%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 3.45 | Draw 2.78 | Tianjin Teda 2.78. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.84 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 40% | Tianjin Teda 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 29% | Draw 36% | Tianjin Teda 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG Henan Jianye 0.85 / Tianjin Teda 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.806 / def 0.812 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.867 / def 0.625 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Tianjin Teda xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 11:35 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Henan Jianye 0 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 29% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 36% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda?
Record (9 meetings): Henan Jianye 2W | Draws 1 | Tianjin Teda 6W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (0.81) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (0.62), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
29%
3.50
36%
2.80
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
1.84
0.99
Tianjin Teda xG
3.50
29%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
15%
6.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 15.6 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.99 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 18W 17D 22L record — D-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 22W 16D 19L from 57 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.25 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Henan Jianye have posted 1.39 PPG from 28 outings (10W 9D 9L).
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 9W 8D 11L from 28 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.35 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 18W 17D 22L in their last 57 games (1.25 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 22W 16D 19L in their last 57 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.39 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Henan Jianye
1
Draws
7
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 2, Tianjin Teda have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when Henan Jianye 0-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 64%, Tianjin Teda 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Henan Jianye) and 46% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Henan Jianye's games and 54% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 46% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Henan Jianye 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Henan Jianye 0-1 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 0.85 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.99 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Henan Jianye fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.81 / defence 0.81 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.87 / defence 0.62, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 29% | Draw 36% | Tianjin Teda 36%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 61%, Tianjin Teda 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.25 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.