Qingdao Jonoon 3-1 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Qingdao Jonoon face Dalian Zhixing.

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Analysis

Dalian Zhixing make the trip to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to face Qingdao Jonoon in Super League (matchday 11). The match kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 13:00 UK time.

Form

Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Qingdao Jonoon's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Dalian Zhixing have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

When travelling, Dalian Zhixing have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Qingdao Jonoon against 0.70 for Dalian Zhixing. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Dalian Zhixing edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Aug 2025, ended Qingdao Jonoon 0–2 Dalian Zhixing — a Dalian Zhixing win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Qingdao Jonoon half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

Dalian Zhixing half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 50% versus Dalian Zhixing 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Qingdao Jonoon 43% | Dalian Zhixing 33%). Note also that Dalian Zhixing surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Qingdao Jonoon recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 2.19 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.080 / defence 1.000 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.969 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.216. Dalian Zhixing's defence rating of 1.214 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Qingdao Jonoon's projected output up. Data: built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 40 games and Dalian Zhixing's last 40.

Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 60% | Draw 21% | Dalian Zhixing 19%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 1.67 | Draw 4.73 | Dalian Zhixing 5.25. The model has a clear lean to Qingdao Jonoon (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.19 / 1.18) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Qingdao Jonoon as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Qingdao Jonoon's last 10 home games and Dalian Zhixing's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Qingdao Jonoon 50% (last 10 home games) | Dalian Zhixing 60% (last 10 away games).

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