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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Henan Jianye host Yunnan Yukun at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 07:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League games this season, Henan Jianye have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Henan Jianye at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Yunnan Yukun stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

On the road, Yunnan Yukun have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Henan Jianye carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Henan Jianye have won 0, Yunnan Yukun 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Jun 2025, ended 1–2 with Yunnan Yukun winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Henan Jianye trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

Yunnan Yukun trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 72% and Yunnan Yukun 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 69% | Yunnan Yukun 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 2.31 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.142 / defence 0.926 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.017 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.774 / away 1.436. Data: 59 Henan Jianye games / 29 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 59% | Draw 19% | Yunnan Yukun 22%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.69 | Draw 5.26 | Yunnan Yukun 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 70% | Yunnan Yukun 70% BTTS from recent games.

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