Henan Jianye 1-1 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Henan Jianye host Yunnan Yukun at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Henan Jianye have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Henan Jianye at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Yunnan Yukun stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Yunnan Yukun have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Henan Jianye carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Henan Jianye have won 0, Yunnan Yukun 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Jun 2025, ended 1–2 with Yunnan Yukun winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Henan Jianye trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Yunnan Yukun trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 72% and Yunnan Yukun 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 69% | Yunnan Yukun 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 2.31 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.142 / defence 0.926 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.017 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.774 / away 1.436. Data: 59 Henan Jianye games / 29 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 59% | Draw 19% | Yunnan Yukun 22%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.69 | Draw 5.26 | Yunnan Yukun 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 70% | Yunnan Yukun 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 59% | Draw 19% | Yunnan Yukun 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 67% | xG Henan Jianye 2.31 / Yunnan Yukun 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.142 / def 0.926 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.017 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.774 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Yunnan Yukun xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun?
Henan Jianye 1 - 1 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 59% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 22% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Henan Jianye and Yunnan Yukun will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Yunnan Yukun?
Record (1 meetings): Henan Jianye 0W | Draws 0 | Yunnan Yukun 1W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Yunnan Yukun in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Henan Jianye's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Yunnan Yukun's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.31. The same calculation in reverse, Yunnan Yukun's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
59%
1.70
19%
5.13
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
3.67
1.35
Yunnan Yukun xG
1.70
59%
Home win
5.13
19%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
10%
10.11
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
2%
46.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.35 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Henan Jianye come into this having played 29 games, going 10W 6D 13L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Yunnan Yukun sit at 1.41 PPG from 29 outings (11W 8D 10L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.24 PPG, Yunnan Yukun on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Henan Jianye's home form reads 6W 3D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Yunnan Yukun have taken 0.93 points per game from 14 outings (3W 4D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yunnan Yukun's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Yunnan Yukun are on 1.59 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; Yunnan Yukun in 72%.
Last 29 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Yunnan Yukun
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Yunnan Yukun in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 10W 6D 13L in their last 29 games (1.24 PPG), while Yunnan Yukun have gone 11W 8D 10L in their last 29 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Yunnan Yukun away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.50 PPG; Yunnan Yukun away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Henan Jianye and Yunnan Yukun runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Yunnan Yukun specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Henan Jianye
1
Draws
2
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Yunnan Yukun?
From 4 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 1, Yunnan Yukun have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Yunnan Yukun 2-1 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Yunnan Yukun?
Yunnan Yukun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Henan Jianye at 79%, Yunnan Yukun at 79%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Henan Jianye and 64% for Yunnan Yukun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Yunnan Yukun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Henan Jianye's games and 79% of Yunnan Yukun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Yunnan Yukun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Henan Jianye's matches and 64% of Yunnan Yukun's.
Do Henan Jianye and Yunnan Yukun tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Yunnan Yukun in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye and Yunnan Yukun share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye and Yunnan Yukun finished level at 1-1 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 2.31 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.35 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Henan Jianye fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.14 / defence 0.93 against Yunnan Yukun attack 1.02 / defence 1.14, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 59% | Draw 19% | Yunnan Yukun 22%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 69%, Yunnan Yukun 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.24 PPG, Yunnan Yukun 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.