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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 30 as Hangzhou Greentown welcome Qingdao Jonoon to Huizhou Olympic Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 07:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 4W 5D 1L at Huizhou Olympic Stadium — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Hangzhou Greentown are significantly better at Huizhou Olympic Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Qingdao Jonoon's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Hangzhou Greentown) versus 1.30 (Qingdao Jonoon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Hangzhou Greentown, 1 for Qingdao Jonoon and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Jun 2025, ended 3–0 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Hangzhou Greentown trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.

Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 46% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 66% versus Qingdao Jonoon 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 76% | Qingdao Jonoon 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 2.11 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.162 / defence 1.089 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.853 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.774 / away 1.436. Data: 59 Hangzhou Greentown games / 59 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 55% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Jonoon 24%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | Qingdao Jonoon 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.11 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 80% | Qingdao Jonoon 40% BTTS from recent games.

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