Hangzhou Greentown 2-2 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 30 as Hangzhou Greentown welcome Qingdao Jonoon to Huizhou Olympic Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 4W 5D 1L at Huizhou Olympic Stadium — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Hangzhou Greentown are significantly better at Huizhou Olympic Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Hangzhou Greentown) versus 1.30 (Qingdao Jonoon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Hangzhou Greentown, 1 for Qingdao Jonoon and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Jun 2025, ended 3–0 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hangzhou Greentown trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 66% versus Qingdao Jonoon 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 76% | Qingdao Jonoon 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 2.11 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.162 / defence 1.089 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.853 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.774 / away 1.436. Data: 59 Hangzhou Greentown games / 59 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 55% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Jonoon 24%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | Qingdao Jonoon 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.11 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 80% | Qingdao Jonoon 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Huizhou Olympic Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 55% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Jonoon 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 65% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 2.11 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.162 / def 1.089 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.853 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.774 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Qingdao Jonoon xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Hangzhou Greentown 2 - 2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Huizhou Olympic Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 55% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (5 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 2W | Draws 2 | Qingdao Jonoon 1W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating (1.16) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
55%
1.81
21%
4.79
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
3.44
1.33
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
12%
8.24
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
3%
34.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.33 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Hangzhou Greentown have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 21W 16D 22L record — D-D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Qingdao Jonoon's form line: 13W 14D 32L from 59 games, 0.90 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Hangzhou Greentown are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Qingdao Jonoon.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 1.79 PPG from 29 outings (14W 10D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.34 PPG overall — Hangzhou Greentown are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 3W 5D 21L from 29 away games — 0.48 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.03 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 21W 16D 22L in their last 59 games (1.34 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 13W 14D 32L in their last 59 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.79 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 14 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Hangzhou Greentown have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jun 2025, when Hangzhou Greentown won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Hangzhou Greentown
3
Draws
1
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 8 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 14 July 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 3-2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 79%, Qingdao Jonoon 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Hangzhou Greentown and 41% for Qingdao Jonoon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 69% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Qingdao Jonoon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 34% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 41% of Qingdao Jonoon's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 30, as Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon drew 2-2 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 2.11 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.33 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.16 / defence 1.09 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.85 / defence 1.02, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 55% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Jonoon 24%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 76%, Qingdao Jonoon 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.