Sichuan Jiuniu 1-1 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Chengdu Better City (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sichuan Jiuniu face Chengdu Better City.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Baoan Stadium plays host to Sichuan Jiuniu versus Chengdu Better City in Super League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 22 November 2025 at 07:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sichuan Jiuniu have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 5W 0D 5L at Baoan Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Sichuan Jiuniu are significantly better at Baoan Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chengdu Better City's overall Super League record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D D W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Chengdu Better City have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Chengdu Better City are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sichuan Jiuniu register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Chengdu Better City in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 3 meetings, Chengdu Better City have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Sichuan Jiuniu's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jun 2025, ended 0–5 with Chengdu Better City winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Chengdu Better City have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Sichuan Jiuniu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Chengdu Better City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 56% versus Chengdu Better City 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 64% | Chengdu Better City 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.63 xG and Chengdu Better City 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.992 / defence 1.061 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.310 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.774 / away 1.436. Chengdu Better City have an above-average attack strength of 1.310 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 59 Chengdu Better City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 32% | Draw 22% | Chengdu Better City 47%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 3.12 | Draw 4.55 | Chengdu Better City 2.13. Chengdu Better City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.63 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 70% | Chengdu Better City 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Baoan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 32% | Draw 22% | Chengdu Better City 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.63 / Chengdu Better City 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.992 / def 1.061 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.310 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.774 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Chengdu Better City xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Baoan Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chengdu Better City?
Sichuan Jiuniu 1 - 1 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Baoan Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 32% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 47% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Chengdu Better City?
Record (3 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 0W | Draws 0 | Chengdu Better City 3W.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Chengdu Better City in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sichuan Jiuniu's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Chengdu Better City's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Chengdu Better City's attack (1.31x) against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
32%
3.14
22%
4.65
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.63
2.00
Chengdu Better City xG
3.14
32%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.28
Clean Sheet
14%
7.37
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
4%
23.10
9%
10.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 2.00 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sichuan Jiuniu come into this having played 59 games, going 15W 10D 34L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Chengdu Better City sit at 2.00 PPG from 59 outings (35W 13D 11L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-L across their last five.
Chengdu Better City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.07 PPG clear of Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sichuan Jiuniu's home form reads 10W 5D 14L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Chengdu Better City have taken 1.72 points per game from 29 outings (14W 8D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 2.10 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 15W 10D 34L in their last 59 games (0.93 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 35W 13D 11L in their last 59 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Chengdu Better City's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 1.21 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Sichuan Jiuniu or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sichuan Jiuniu have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Chengdu Better City go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chengdu Better City won 5-0 on 25 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Chengdu Better City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
1
Draws
5
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Chengdu Better City?
From 6 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, Chengdu Better City have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 2-3 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 66% for Sichuan Jiuniu, 66% for Chengdu Better City — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Sichuan Jiuniu and 62% for Chengdu Better City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sichuan Jiuniu play Chengdu Better City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Sichuan Jiuniu's games and 66% of Chengdu Better City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Sichuan Jiuniu's matches and 62% of Chengdu Better City's.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Sichuan Jiuniu have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sichuan Jiuniu and Chengdu Better City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu and Chengdu Better City finished level at 1-1 at Baoan Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.63 xG and Chengdu Better City 2.00 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Chengdu Better City landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.31 / defence 0.93, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 32% | Draw 22% | Chengdu Better City 47%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 64%, Chengdu Better City 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.