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Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium plays host to Yunnan Yukun versus Qingdao Jonoon in Super League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Yunnan Yukun have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Yunnan Yukun's home record at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Yunnan Yukun's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Yunnan Yukun 1W, Qingdao Jonoon 1W, 0D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 1–5 with Qingdao Jonoon winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Statistical Overview

Yunnan Yukun's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 11W 9D 10L from 30 matches. Their scoring output is 1.6 per match with 1.7 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-5 (H) / 5-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 7 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 30 games (17%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-1-4-1. Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards per game, 0.10 reds per game.

Qingdao Jonoon have played 30 games this season, recording 5W 10D 15L. Attacking returns: 1.2 goals per game; defensive: 1.6 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 5-1 (H) / 2-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 4 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 12 games this season. 4 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 30 games (13%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards per game, 0.20 reds per game.

Yunnan Yukun have the stronger attack on season averages, scoring 1.60 per game versus 1.20 for the visitors. Yunnan Yukun lead on clean sheets this season (7 vs 4). Qingdao Jonoon are averaging significantly more yellow cards per game this season — a risk factor worth noting for card markets. Penalty activity: Yunnan Yukun 4/4 vs Qingdao Jonoon 4/4 this season.

Trading Data

Yunnan Yukun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Qingdao Jonoon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 73% and Qingdao Jonoon 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 53% | Qingdao Jonoon 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.82 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.978 / defence 0.980 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.984 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.895 / away 1.401. Data: 30 Yunnan Yukun games / 30 Qingdao Jonoon games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 48% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Jonoon 28%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.57. Yunnan Yukun hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Yunnan Yukun as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Yunnan Yukun if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Yunnan Yukun 70% | Qingdao Jonoon 40% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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