Chengdu Better City 1-2 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Henan Jianye make the trip to Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park to face Chengdu Better City in Super League, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Friday 31 October 2025 at 11:35 UTC.
Form
Chengdu Better City (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Chengdu Better City's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Henan Jianye away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Chengdu Better City. A 0.50 PPG lead over Henan Jianye (2.20 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chengdu Better City lead 3W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2025, ended 2–3 with Henan Jianye winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Chengdu Better City half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Henan Jianye half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 57% versus Henan Jianye 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 60% | Henan Jianye 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.94 xG and Henan Jianye 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.063 / defence 0.668 | Henan Jianye attack 1.022 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.832 / away 1.434. Chengdu Better City's defence rating of 0.668 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Chengdu Better City games / 58 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 59% | Draw 23% | Henan Jianye 18%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Henan Jianye 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Chengdu Better City 50% | Henan Jianye 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park • Kick-off: Friday 31 Oct 2025, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 59% | Draw 23% | Henan Jianye 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.94 / Henan Jianye 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.063 / def 0.668 | Henan Jianye attack 1.022 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.832 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Henan Jianye xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 11:35 on Friday 31 October 2025 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye?
Chengdu Better City 1 - 2 Henan Jianye.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 59% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye?
Record (7 meetings): Chengdu Better City 3W | Draws 2 | Henan Jianye 2W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Chengdu Better City's attack rating (1.06) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (1.02x) against Chengdu Better City's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.28
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.92
0.98
Henan Jianye xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
3%
39.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 0.98 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chengdu Better City come into this having played 58 games, going 35W 13D 10L for 2.03 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-D.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.19 PPG from 58 outings (18W 15D 25L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Chengdu Better City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Chengdu Better City's home form reads 21W 5D 3L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.34 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 0.93 points per game from 29 outings (6W 9D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chengdu Better City are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.43 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye in 62%.
Last 58 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 35W 13D 10L in their last 58 games (2.03 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 18W 15D 25L in their last 58 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Henan Jianye away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.34 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chengdu Better City won 3-0 on 9 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chengdu Better City have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Chengdu Better City
3
Draws
3
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye?
From 10 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 4, Henan Jianye have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Henan Jianye 0-0 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 48%, Henan Jianye 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Chengdu Better City) and 52% (Henan Jianye). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Henan Jianye?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Chengdu Better City's games and 62% of Henan Jianye's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 52% of Henan Jianye's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Henan Jianye defy the odds to beat Chengdu Better City 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Chengdu Better City 1-2 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.94 xG and Henan Jianye 0.98 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Chengdu Better City fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Henan Jianye outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.06 / defence 0.67 against Henan Jianye attack 1.02 / defence 1.00, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 59% | Draw 23% | Henan Jianye 18%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Henan Jianye win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 60%, Henan Jianye 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Henan Jianye winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.