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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dalian Zhixing vs SHANGHAI SIPG encounter.

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Match Analysis

Dalian Zhixing host SHANGHAI SIPG at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 07:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalian Zhixing stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Dalian Zhixing's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Dalian Zhixing are significantly better at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.

SHANGHAI SIPG — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SHANGHAI SIPG are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dalian Zhixing, 1 for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Jun 2025, ended 0–3 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Dalian Zhixing in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 93% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 93% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dalian Zhixing 41% and SHANGHAI SIPG 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Zhixing 34% | SHANGHAI SIPG 83%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.26 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.641 / defence 0.908 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.412 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.774 / away 1.436. Dalian Zhixing's attack strength of 0.641 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SHANGHAI SIPG have an above-average attack strength of 1.412 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 29 Dalian Zhixing games / 59 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 26% | Draw 23% | SHANGHAI SIPG 51%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1.96. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Zhixing 10% | SHANGHAI SIPG 100% BTTS from recent games.

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