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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua meet at Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 November 2025 at 07:30 UTC.

Current Form

Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Tianjin Teda's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Olympic Sports Center Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympic Sports Center Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Shanghai Shenhua (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Tianjin Teda 2W, Shanghai Shenhua 2W, 3D.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jun 2025, ended 0–3 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 56% versus Shanghai Shenhua 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 58% | Shanghai Shenhua 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.33 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.944 / defence 0.728 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.069 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.774 / away 1.436. Shanghai Shenhua's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Tianjin Teda's defence rating of 0.728 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Tianjin Teda games / 59 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 42% | Draw 27% | Shanghai Shenhua 31%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Shanghai Shenhua 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 20% | Shanghai Shenhua 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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