🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Qingdao Youth Island host Changchun Yatai at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center in Super League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 07:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Qingdao Youth Island — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Qingdao Youth Island at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Super League games this season, Changchun Yatai have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Changchun Yatai's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Qingdao Youth Island) versus 1.00 (Changchun Yatai). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Qingdao Youth Island have won 0, Changchun Yatai 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Jun 2025, ended 0–1 with Changchun Yatai winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Qingdao Youth Island in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Youth Island 61% versus Changchun Yatai 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 58% | Changchun Yatai 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.44 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.841 / defence 1.047 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.795 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.774 / away 1.436. Data: 59 Qingdao Youth Island games / 59 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 43% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 31%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Changchun Yatai 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Qingdao Youth Island as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Youth Island 50% | Changchun Yatai 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights