Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan meet at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Current Form
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Henan Jianye have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Beijing Guoan (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Beijing Guoan arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Henan Jianye, 5 for Beijing Guoan and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Henan Jianye winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Statistical Overview
Henan Jianye's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 6W 3D 8L from 17 matches. They average 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 17 games (6%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 1 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards per game.
Beijing Guoan's full-season record stands at 7W 5D 5L from 17 games. They average 1.7 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-4 (H) / 2-1 (A). Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 1 game this season. 6 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 17 games (24%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 1 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards per game, 0.06 reds per game.
Beijing Guoan have been the more prolific side this season at 1.70 goals per game compared to 1.10 for the hosts. Beijing Guoan lead on clean sheets this season (6 vs 3). Beijing Guoan score 2+ goals far more often (24% vs 6%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Henan Jianye 2/3 vs Beijing Guoan 3/4 this season.
Where They Stand
The standings have Beijing Guoan (7th, 21 pts) 6 places above Henan Jianye (13th, 15 pts) — a 6-point gap in Super League.
On home turf, Henan Jianye's Super League record reads 3W 1D 4L this term. Beijing Guoan have gone 3W 3D 2L on their travels.
Trading & In-Play
Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Beijing Guoan — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 66% and Beijing Guoan 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 64% | Beijing Guoan 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.18 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.763 / defence 0.983 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.086 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Henan Jianye's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Henan Jianye games / 47 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 31% | Draw 26% | Beijing Guoan 43%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Beijing Guoan 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 50% | Beijing Guoan 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 07:30 UTC • Managers: Henan Jianye (Daniel Ramos) | Beijing Guoan (Quique Setién) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (10 meetings): Henan Jianye 4W | Draws 1 | Beijing Guoan 5W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Henan Jianye 12 – 13 Beijing Guoan • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 60% | Win rates: Henan Jianye 40% / Draw 10% / Beijing Guoan 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 31% / draw 26% / away 43% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (60% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.63 (49% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 53% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L • Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W • Henan Jianye home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | CS 2 • Beijing Guoan away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | CS 4 • Form edge: Beijing Guoan lead by 0.50 PPG (1.80 vs 1.30) • xG vs form (Henan Jianye): Poisson xG of 1.18 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.20 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Beijing Guoan): Poisson xG of 1.45 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.70 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.1 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.63 (49% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 53% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Beijing Guoan — Beijing Guoan at 43% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 31% | Draw 26% | Beijing Guoan 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Henan Jianye 1.18 / Beijing Guoan 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.763 / def 0.983 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.086 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Beijing Guoan xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan is scheduled to kick off at 07:30 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 31% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan?
• Record (10 meetings): Henan Jianye 4W | Draws 1 | Beijing Guoan 5W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Henan Jianye 12 – 13 Beijing Guoan • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 60% | Win rates: Henan Jianye 40% / Draw 10% / Beijing Guoan 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 31% / draw 26% / away 43% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (60% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.63 (49% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 53% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan in?
• Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L • Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W • Henan Jianye home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | CS 2 • Beijing Guoan away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | CS 4 • Form edge: Beijing Guoan lead by 0.50 PPG (1.80 vs 1.30) • xG vs form (Henan Jianye): Poisson xG of 1.18 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.20 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Beijing Guoan): Poisson xG of 1.45 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.70 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.1 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.63 (49% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 53% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Beijing Guoan — Beijing Guoan at 43% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture