Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host SHANGHAI SIPG at Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 October 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Olympic Sports Center Stadium this season.
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Tianjin Teda at 1.70 PPG versus SHANGHAI SIPG's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, SHANGHAI SIPG have the better historical record — 6 wins from 10 previous contests against 1 for Tianjin Teda.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SHANGHAI SIPG have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tianjin Teda 56% and SHANGHAI SIPG 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 52% | SHANGHAI SIPG 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.56 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.959 / defence 1.124 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.172 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.404. Data: 54 Tianjin Teda games / 55 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 32% | Draw 23% | SHANGHAI SIPG 45%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 3.12 | Draw 4.35 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.22. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 80% | SHANGHAI SIPG 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 32% | Draw 23% | SHANGHAI SIPG 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.56 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.959 / def 1.124 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.172 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.85
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG is scheduled to kick off at 07:30 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 32% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 45% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (10 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 3 | SHANGHAI SIPG 6W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.96) and SHANGHAI SIPG's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
32%
3.08
23%
4.36
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
3.41
1.85
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
3.08
32%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
16%
6.36
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
5%
19.60
9%
10.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.85 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Tianjin Teda have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 19W 16D 19L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form line: 29W 13D 12L from 54 games, 1.85 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SHANGHAI SIPG are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tianjin Teda.
Venue Form
On home soil, Tianjin Teda have posted 1.52 PPG from 27 outings (11W 8D 8L).
On the road, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 16W 4D 7L from 27 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 2.02 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG in 78%.
Last 54 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 19W 16D 19L in their last 54 games (1.35 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 29W 13D 12L in their last 54 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.52 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2021, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Tianjin Teda
3
Draws
6
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 1, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Tianjin Teda at 56%, SHANGHAI SIPG at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Tianjin Teda and 74% for SHANGHAI SIPG. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Tianjin Teda's games and 78% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 74% of SHANGHAI SIPG's.
Do Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.