Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host SHANGHAI SIPG at Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 October 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Tianjin Teda at 1.30 PPG versus SHANGHAI SIPG's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Tianjin Teda register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, SHANGHAI SIPG have the better historical record — 5 wins from 10 previous contests against 1 for Tianjin Teda.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that SHANGHAI SIPG have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Table Standings
In the Super League table, SHANGHAI SIPG sit 12th on 15 points, 3 places and 7 points ahead of Tianjin Teda in 15th.
On home turf, Tianjin Teda's Super League record reads 2W 3D 4L this term. Away from home, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 2W 2D 5L in Super League this season. Tianjin Teda: Relegation - League One.
In-Play Profile
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tianjin Teda 55% and SHANGHAI SIPG 81% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 53% | SHANGHAI SIPG 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.50 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.911 / defence 0.965 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.984 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 47 Tianjin Teda games / 47 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 42% | Draw 25% | SHANGHAI SIPG 33%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | SHANGHAI SIPG 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 70% | SHANGHAI SIPG 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 07:30 UTC • Managers: Tianjin Teda (Yu Genwei) | SHANGHAI SIPG (K. Muscat) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (10 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 4 | SHANGHAI SIPG 5W • Goals trend: 2.40 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Tianjin Teda 5 – 19 SHANGHAI SIPG • H2H markets: BTTS 40% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Tianjin Teda 10% / Draw 40% / SHANGHAI SIPG 50% • Historical edge: SHANGHAI SIPG dominant — 5W from 10 meetings (50% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours SHANGHAI SIPG (historical win rate 50%) but Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda as more likely (home 42% / draw 25% / away 33%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.40/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.79 (53% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 40%, Poisson probability 56% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W • SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L • Tianjin Teda home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • SHANGHAI SIPG away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | CS 2 • Form edge: minimal separation (Tianjin Teda 1.30 PPG vs SHANGHAI SIPG 1.30 PPG) • xG vs form (Tianjin Teda): Poisson xG of 1.50 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (SHANGHAI SIPG): Poisson xG of 1.29 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.10 — consistent corroboration • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.9 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.79 (53% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Tianjin Teda 7/10, SHANGHAI SIPG 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 56% — all signals aligned
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 42% | Draw 25% | SHANGHAI SIPG 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.50 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.911 / def 0.965 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.984 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.29
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG is scheduled to kick off at 07:30 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 42% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG?
• Record (10 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 4 | SHANGHAI SIPG 5W • Goals trend: 2.40 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Tianjin Teda 5 – 19 SHANGHAI SIPG • H2H markets: BTTS 40% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Tianjin Teda 10% / Draw 40% / SHANGHAI SIPG 50% • Historical edge: SHANGHAI SIPG dominant — 5W from 10 meetings (50% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours SHANGHAI SIPG (historical win rate 50%) but Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda as more likely (home 42% / draw 25% / away 33%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.40/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.79 (53% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 40%, Poisson probability 56% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
• Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W • SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L • Tianjin Teda home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • SHANGHAI SIPG away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | CS 2 • Form edge: minimal separation (Tianjin Teda 1.30 PPG vs SHANGHAI SIPG 1.30 PPG) • xG vs form (Tianjin Teda): Poisson xG of 1.50 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (SHANGHAI SIPG): Poisson xG of 1.29 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.10 — consistent corroboration • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.9 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.79 (53% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Tianjin Teda 7/10, SHANGHAI SIPG 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 56% — all signals aligned
What do the betting odds say about Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture