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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Qingdao Youth Island travel to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium to take on Henan Jianye. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 August 2026, 11:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Henan Jianye — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Henan Jianye have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Youth Island have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Qingdao Youth Island's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Henan Jianye at 1.30 PPG versus Qingdao Youth Island's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Key Season Stats

Across 18 matches this season, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 5W 9D 4L. They average 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 2-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: – (H) / 5-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 7 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 18 games (17%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 2 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-1-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.11 reds per game.

Standings Snapshot

Qingdao Youth Island hold the table advantage, sitting 6th with 24 points — 7 positions and 9 points clear of Henan Jianye in 13th.

At home this season, Henan Jianye have gone 3W 1D 4L. Qingdao Youth Island have gone 2W 3D 4L on their travels.

In-Play Data

Henan Jianye trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).

Qingdao Youth Island trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 66% and Qingdao Youth Island 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 64% | Qingdao Youth Island 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.46 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.763 / defence 0.983 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.902 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Henan Jianye's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Henan Jianye games / 48 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 43% | Draw 26% | Qingdao Youth Island 31%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Qingdao Youth Island 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 50% | Qingdao Youth Island 60% BTTS from recent games.

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