Henan Jianye 0-0 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Qingdao Youth Island travel to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium to take on Henan Jianye. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 August 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Henan Jianye — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Henan Jianye have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Youth Island have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Youth Island's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Qingdao Youth Island — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Henan Jianye, 2 for Qingdao Youth Island and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Henan Jianye trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Qingdao Youth Island trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 68% and Qingdao Youth Island 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 64% | Qingdao Youth Island 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.57 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.930 / defence 0.985 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.901 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.282. Data: 50 Henan Jianye games / 51 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 47% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Youth Island 28%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Qingdao Youth Island 3.57. Henan Jianye hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Qingdao Youth Island (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 50% | Qingdao Youth Island 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 47% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Youth Island 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Henan Jianye 1.57 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.930 / def 0.985 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.901 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Qingdao Youth Island xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 9 August 2026 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Henan Jianye 0 - 0 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 47% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (5 meetings): Henan Jianye 1W | Draws 2 | Qingdao Youth Island 2W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (0.93) and Qingdao Youth Island's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Youth Island's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
47%
2.11
25%
3.99
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.71
1.14
Qingdao Youth Island xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
6%
17.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.14 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 18W 11D 21L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Youth Island's form line: 17W 19D 14L from 50 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.30 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Henan Jianye have posted 1.50 PPG from 24 outings (10W 6D 8L).
On the road, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 7W 7D 10L from 24 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.26 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Qingdao Youth Island in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 18W 11D 21L in their last 50 games (1.30 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 17W 19D 14L in their last 50 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.50 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Qingdao Youth Island specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Henan Jianye
3
Draws
2
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 6 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 1, Qingdao Youth Island have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Henan Jianye 0-0 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 67%, Qingdao Youth Island 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Henan Jianye) and 50% (Qingdao Youth Island). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Youth Island in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Qingdao Youth Island?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Henan Jianye's games and 58% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Henan Jianye's matches and 50% of Qingdao Youth Island's.
Do Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Henan Jianye's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island finished level at 0-0 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.57 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.14 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Henan Jianye fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Qingdao Youth Island landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.93 / defence 0.98 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.90 / defence 0.99, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 47% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Youth Island 28%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 64%, Qingdao Youth Island 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.30 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.