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Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Qingdao Jonoon make the trip to Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center to face Qingdao Youth Island in Super League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 10:00 UTC.

Form

Qingdao Youth Island (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 4W 6D 0L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Qingdao Jonoon's overall Super League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Qingdao Jonoon's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Qingdao Youth Island against 1.60 for Qingdao Jonoon. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Qingdao Youth Island register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Qingdao Jonoon in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

League Table

Qingdao Youth Island hold the table advantage, sitting 6th with 24 points — 8 positions and 10 points clear of Qingdao Jonoon in 14th.

On home turf, Qingdao Youth Island's Super League record reads 3W 6D 0L this term. Qingdao Jonoon have gone 1W 1D 6L on their travels.

Trading

Qingdao Youth Island half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Qingdao Jonoon half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Youth Island 62% versus Qingdao Jonoon 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 49% | Qingdao Jonoon 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.82 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.923 / defence 0.835 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.987 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 48 Qingdao Youth Island games / 47 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 54% | Draw 23% | Qingdao Jonoon 23%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Qingdao Jonoon 4.35. Qingdao Youth Island hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Qingdao Youth Island are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Youth Island 70% | Qingdao Jonoon 80% BTTS from recent games.

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