Qingdao Youth Island 2-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Qingdao Youth Island at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon make the trip to Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center to face Qingdao Youth Island in Super League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 10:00 UTC.
Form
Qingdao Youth Island (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 3W 7D 0L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Qingdao Jonoon's overall Super League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Qingdao Youth Island. A 1.20 PPG lead over Qingdao Jonoon (1.90 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Qingdao Youth Island register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Qingdao Jonoon in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Qingdao Youth Island lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Qingdao Youth Island half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Qingdao Jonoon half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Qingdao Youth Island 62% and Qingdao Jonoon 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 48% | Qingdao Jonoon 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 2.23 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.924 / defence 0.827 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.002 / defence 1.413. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.361. Qingdao Jonoon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.413 — this is suppressing Qingdao Youth Island's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Qingdao Youth Island games / 50 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 62% | Draw 20% | Qingdao Jonoon 18%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | Qingdao Jonoon 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Qingdao Youth Island (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Qingdao Youth Island are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.36 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Youth Island 80% | Qingdao Jonoon 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Aug 2026, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 62% | Draw 20% | Qingdao Jonoon 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 60% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 2.23 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.924 / def 0.827 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.002 / def 1.413 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Youth Island (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Qingdao Jonoon xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 2 August 2026 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Qingdao Youth Island 2 - 0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 62% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Youth Island the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (5 meetings): Qingdao Youth Island 2W | Draws 2 | Qingdao Jonoon 1W.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Qingdao Youth Island's attack rating (0.92) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 2.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Qingdao Jonoon's attack (1.00x) against Qingdao Youth Island's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Youth Island Win
62%
1.61
20%
5.07
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
3.36
1.13
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.61
62%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
11%
9.29
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
2%
51.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.13 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Qingdao Youth Island have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 16W 20D 14L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Jonoon's form line: 11W 13D 26L from 50 games, 0.92 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Qingdao Youth Island are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Qingdao Jonoon.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Qingdao Youth Island have posted 1.56 PPG from 25 outings (9W 12D 4L).
On the road, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 5D 18L from 25 away games — 0.44 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Youth Island come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Qingdao Youth Island are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.30 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Qingdao Youth Island have gone 16W 20D 14L in their last 50 games (1.36 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 11W 13D 26L in their last 50 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Youth Island at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Qingdao Youth Island's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Youth Island at home: 1.56 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Qingdao Youth Island
2
Draws
1
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 6 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 3, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 2-0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Youth Island and Qingdao Jonoon?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Youth Island 64%, Qingdao Jonoon 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Qingdao Youth Island) and 56% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Youth Island keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Qingdao Jonoon in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Youth Island play Qingdao Jonoon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Qingdao Youth Island's games and 60% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Qingdao Youth Island's recent games and 56% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Youth Island and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Qingdao Youth Island have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Youth Island cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island beat Qingdao Jonoon 2-0 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 2.23 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.13 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.92 / defence 0.83 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.00 / defence 1.41, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 62% | Draw 20% | Qingdao Jonoon 18%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 48%, Qingdao Jonoon 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Qingdao Youth Island arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.