Henan Jianye 1-1 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Henan Jianye welcome Dalian Zhixing to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 31 July 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Henan Jianye — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalian Zhixing stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Zhixing's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Henan Jianye have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Henan Jianye, 2 for Dalian Zhixing and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Dalian Zhixing winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Henan Jianye trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Dalian Zhixing trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 67% versus Dalian Zhixing 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 65% | Dalian Zhixing 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.98 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.970 / defence 0.961 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.900 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.740 / away 1.364. Data: 49 Henan Jianye games / 49 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 56% | Draw 22% | Dalian Zhixing 22%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Dalian Zhixing 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 50% | Dalian Zhixing 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jul 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 56% | Draw 22% | Dalian Zhixing 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG Henan Jianye 1.98 / Dalian Zhixing 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.970 / def 0.961 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.900 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.740 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Dalian Zhixing xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 11:35 on Friday 31 July 2026 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing?
Henan Jianye 1 - 1 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 56% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing?
Record (3 meetings): Henan Jianye 1W | Draws 0 | Dalian Zhixing 2W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Henan Jianye's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Dalian Zhixing's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Zhixing's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
56%
1.79
22%
4.61
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
3.16
1.18
Dalian Zhixing xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
14%
7.25
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
3%
32.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.18 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Henan Jianye come into this having played 49 games, going 18W 10D 21L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dalian Zhixing sit at 1.31 PPG from 49 outings (18W 10D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Dalian Zhixing is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.31 PPG, Dalian Zhixing on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Henan Jianye's home form reads 10W 5D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalian Zhixing have taken 0.71 points per game from 24 outings (3W 8D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dalian Zhixing's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Dalian Zhixing are on 1.22 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Dalian Zhixing
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 18W 10D 21L in their last 49 games (1.31 PPG), while Dalian Zhixing have gone 18W 10D 21L in their last 49 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Dalian Zhixing away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.46 PPG; Dalian Zhixing away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2025, when Henan Jianye won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Dalian Zhixing specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Henan Jianye
1
Draws
2
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing?
From 4 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 1, Dalian Zhixing have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Henan Jianye 1-1 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 67%, Dalian Zhixing 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Henan Jianye and 54% for Dalian Zhixing. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Dalian Zhixing?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Henan Jianye's games and 62% of Dalian Zhixing's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Henan Jianye's matches and 54% of Dalian Zhixing's.
Do Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Dalian Zhixing in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.98 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.18 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Henan Jianye fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.90 / defence 1.17, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 56% | Draw 22% | Dalian Zhixing 22%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 65%, Dalian Zhixing 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.31 PPG, Dalian Zhixing 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.