Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Henan Jianye welcome Dalian Zhixing to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 31 July 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Henan Jianye — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalian Zhixing stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Zhixing's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Henan Jianye at 1.30 PPG versus Dalian Zhixing's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Henan Jianye, 2 for Dalian Zhixing and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Dalian Zhixing winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Season Statistics
Henan Jianye's full-season record stands at 6W 3D 8L from 17 games. They average 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 17 games (6%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 1 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards per game.
Across 17 matches this season, Dalian Zhixing have gone 8W 1D 8L. Attacking returns: 1.5 goals per game; defensive: 1.8 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-4 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 2 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 17 games (18%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game.
Dalian Zhixing have been the more prolific side this season at 1.50 goals per game compared to 1.10 for the hosts. Henan Jianye have the superior defensive numbers, conceding 1.30 per game against Dalian Zhixing's 1.80. Dalian Zhixing lead on clean sheets this season (5 vs 3). Penalty activity: Henan Jianye 2/3 vs Dalian Zhixing 3/3 this season.
In-Play Data
Henan Jianye trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Dalian Zhixing trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 66% versus Dalian Zhixing 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 64% | Dalian Zhixing 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.40 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.763 / defence 0.983 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.828 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Henan Jianye's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Henan Jianye games / 47 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 44% | Draw 27% | Dalian Zhixing 30%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Dalian Zhixing 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 50% | Dalian Zhixing 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jul 2026, 11:35 UTC • Managers: Henan Jianye (Daniel Ramos) | Dalian Zhixing (Li Guoxu) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (3 meetings): Henan Jianye 1W | Draws 0 | Dalian Zhixing 2W • Goals trend: 2.67 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Henan Jianye 5 – 3 Dalian Zhixing • H2H markets: BTTS 33% | Over 2.5 67% | Win rates: Henan Jianye 33% / Draw 0% / Dalian Zhixing 67% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 44% / draw 27% / away 30% • Goals: H2H average 2.67/game (67% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.51 (46% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 33%, Poisson probability 51% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L • Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W • Henan Jianye home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | CS 2 • Dalian Zhixing away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Henan Jianye 1.30 PPG vs Dalian Zhixing 1.00 PPG) • xG vs form (Henan Jianye): Poisson xG of 1.40 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.20 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Dalian Zhixing): Poisson xG of 1.11 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.1 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.51 (46% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~60% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 51% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 44% | Draw 27% | Dalian Zhixing 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Henan Jianye 1.40 / Dalian Zhixing 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.763 / def 0.983 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.828 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Dalian Zhixing xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing is scheduled to kick off at 11:35 on Friday 31 July 2026 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 44% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing?
• Record (3 meetings): Henan Jianye 1W | Draws 0 | Dalian Zhixing 2W • Goals trend: 2.67 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Henan Jianye 5 – 3 Dalian Zhixing • H2H markets: BTTS 33% | Over 2.5 67% | Win rates: Henan Jianye 33% / Draw 0% / Dalian Zhixing 67% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 44% / draw 27% / away 30% • Goals: H2H average 2.67/game (67% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.51 (46% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 33%, Poisson probability 51% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing in?
• Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L • Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W • Henan Jianye home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | CS 2 • Dalian Zhixing away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Henan Jianye 1.30 PPG vs Dalian Zhixing 1.00 PPG) • xG vs form (Henan Jianye): Poisson xG of 1.40 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.20 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Dalian Zhixing): Poisson xG of 1.11 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.1 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.51 (46% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~60% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 51% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture