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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda encounter.

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Match Analysis

Shandong Luneng host Tianjin Teda at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Shandong Luneng — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Shandong Luneng's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Shandong Luneng 1.70 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Shandong Luneng have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 10 past contests while Tianjin Teda have managed just 1 wins.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Shandong Luneng winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shandong Luneng and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Season Statistics

Shandong Luneng's full-season record stands at 9W 3D 6L from 18 games. Their scoring output is 1.9 per match with 1.7 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 2 clean sheets this season (1 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 18 games (33%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 3-4-2-1. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game, 0.11 reds per game.

Tianjin Teda's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 4W 6D 7L from 17 matches. Their scoring output is 1.3 per match with 1.3 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 3-0 (A). Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 4 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 17 games (18%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 1 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.

Shandong Luneng have the stronger attack on season averages, scoring 1.90 per game versus 1.30 for the visitors. Tianjin Teda have kept their defensive record in better shape, conceding 1.30 per game versus 1.70 for the hosts. Tianjin Teda lead on clean sheets this season (4 vs 2). Shandong Luneng score 2+ goals far more often (33% vs 18%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Shandong Luneng 4/4 vs Tianjin Teda 4/5 this season.

Standings Snapshot

Shandong Luneng hold the table advantage, sitting 4th with 24 points — 11 positions and 16 points clear of Tianjin Teda in 15th.

At home this season, Shandong Luneng have gone 5W 3D 1L. Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 3D 3L on their travels. Tianjin Teda: Relegation - League One.

Trading Patterns

Shandong Luneng in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.

Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shandong Luneng 74% and Tianjin Teda 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 77% | Tianjin Teda 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.89 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.307 / defence 1.118 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.924 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 Shandong Luneng games / 47 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 49% | Draw 22% | Tianjin Teda 29%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.04 | Draw 4.55 | Tianjin Teda 3.45. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shandong Luneng 90% | Tianjin Teda 50% BTTS from recent games.

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