Shandong Luneng 2-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shandong Luneng host Tianjin Teda at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Shandong Luneng — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Shandong Luneng 1.30 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Shandong Luneng have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 9 past contests while Tianjin Teda have managed just 1 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Shandong Luneng winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shandong Luneng and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Shandong Luneng in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shandong Luneng 74% and Tianjin Teda 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 76% | Tianjin Teda 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.41 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.227 / defence 1.188 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.056 / defence 0.676. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.282. Tianjin Teda's defence strength of 0.676 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Shandong Luneng games / 50 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 34% | Draw 24% | Tianjin Teda 42%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Tianjin Teda 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shandong Luneng 90% | Tianjin Teda 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 34% | Draw 24% | Tianjin Teda 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Shandong Luneng 1.41 / Tianjin Teda 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.227 / def 1.188 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.056 / def 0.676 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Tianjin Teda xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 9 August 2026 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Shandong Luneng 2 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 34% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda?
Record (9 meetings): Shandong Luneng 6W | Draws 2 | Tianjin Teda 1W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shandong Luneng's attack at 1.23x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
34%
2.97
24%
4.15
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
3.02
1.61
Tianjin Teda xG
2.97
34%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
7%
14.81
10%
9.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.61 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shandong Luneng's recent record stands at 25W 10D 15L from 50 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 17L across 50 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shandong Luneng on 1.70 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shandong Luneng have managed 15W 5D 4L from 24 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 7W 7D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.38 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shandong Luneng have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 25W 10D 15L in their last 50 games (1.70 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 19W 14D 17L in their last 50 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.08 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shandong Luneng go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2022, when Shandong Luneng won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Shandong Luneng
2
Draws
1
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 7, Tianjin Teda have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Shandong Luneng 2-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 75%, Tianjin Teda 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Shandong Luneng and 46% for Tianjin Teda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Shandong Luneng's games and 54% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 46% of Tianjin Teda's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shandong Luneng defy the odds to beat Tianjin Teda 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Tianjin Teda 2-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.41 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.61 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.23 / defence 1.19 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.06 / defence 0.68, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 34% | Draw 24% | Tianjin Teda 42%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Shandong Luneng win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 76%, Tianjin Teda 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shandong Luneng 1.70 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shandong Luneng win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.