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Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Hangzhou Greentown host Yunnan Yukun at Huizhou Olympic Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 August 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Yunnan Yukun stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League this season, Yunnan Yukun have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hangzhou Greentown at 1.40 PPG versus Yunnan Yukun's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hangzhou Greentown register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Yunnan Yukun in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Team Stats

Hangzhou Greentown have played 17 games this season, recording 6W 4D 7L. Attacking returns: 1.4 goals per game; defensive: 1.7 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-5 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 17 games (12%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 1 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.

The visitors have accumulated 7W 3D 8L from their 18 Super League appearances this term. Attacking returns: 1.9 goals per game; defensive: 1.8 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 4-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 2 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 18 games (33%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-3. Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards per game, 0.06 reds per game.

Yunnan Yukun have been the more prolific side this season at 1.90 goals per game compared to 1.40 for the hosts. Yunnan Yukun score 2+ goals far more often (33% vs 12%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Hangzhou Greentown 2/3 vs Yunnan Yukun 2/2 this season.

Table Context

The standings have Yunnan Yukun (5th, 24 pts) 6 places above Hangzhou Greentown (11th, 17 pts) — a 7-point gap in Super League.

On home turf, Hangzhou Greentown's Super League record reads 3W 3D 2L this term. Away from home, Yunnan Yukun have posted 3W 2D 5L in Super League this season.

In-Play Data

Hangzhou Greentown trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

Yunnan Yukun trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 62% and Yunnan Yukun 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hangzhou Greentown 68% | Yunnan Yukun 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.77 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.886 / defence 1.077 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.211 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Yunnan Yukun have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Hangzhou Greentown games / 48 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 39% | Draw 22% | Yunnan Yukun 39%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.56 | Draw 4.55 | Yunnan Yukun 2.56. The draw (22%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 22% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 39% and away win at 39% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 3.55 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 60% | Yunnan Yukun 90% BTTS from recent games.

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