Tianjin Teda 1-1 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island meet at Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tianjin Teda have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 3W 2D 5L at Olympic Sports Center Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Olympic Sports Center Stadium this season.
Qingdao Youth Island's overall Super League record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Youth Island have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Tianjin Teda, 1.90 for Qingdao Youth Island — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Qingdao Youth Island in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Tianjin Teda 2W, Qingdao Youth Island 0W, 3D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Qingdao Youth Island goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 55% versus Qingdao Youth Island 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 53% | Qingdao Youth Island 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.55 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 1.008 / defence 1.146 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.799 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.387. Data: 53 Tianjin Teda games / 54 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 44% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Youth Island 31%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Qingdao Youth Island 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 80% | Qingdao Youth Island 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 44% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Youth Island 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.55 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 1.008 / def 1.146 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.799 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.694 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Qingdao Youth Island xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 1 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 44% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (5 meetings): Tianjin Teda 2W | Draws 3 | Qingdao Youth Island 0W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Tianjin Teda's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Youth Island's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Qingdao Youth Island's attack (0.80x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
44%
2.28
25%
4.01
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.82
1.27
Qingdao Youth Island xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
7%
15.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.27 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 19W 15D 19L from 53 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Youth Island, meanwhile, have gone 18W 21D 14L across 53 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Tianjin Teda against 1.42 for Qingdao Youth Island. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 11W 6D 8L from 25 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Qingdao Youth Island's away record stands at 7W 8D 10L across 25 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.23 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 19W 15D 19L in their last 53 games (1.36 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 18W 21D 14L in their last 53 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.56 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Qingdao Youth Island been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Qingdao Youth Island in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Qingdao Youth Island — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Tianjin Teda
4
Draws
0
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 6 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 2, Qingdao Youth Island have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Tianjin Teda 1-1 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 52%, Qingdao Youth Island 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Tianjin Teda) and 48% (Qingdao Youth Island).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Qingdao Youth Island in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Qingdao Youth Island?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 56% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 48% of Qingdao Youth Island's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island finished level at 1-1 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.55 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.27 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 1.01 / defence 1.15 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.80 / defence 0.91, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 44% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Youth Island 31%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 53%, Qingdao Youth Island 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.36 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.