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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Youth Island meet at Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Tianjin Teda have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 2W 3D 5L at Olympic Sports Center Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Qingdao Youth Island's overall Super League record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Youth Island have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Tianjin Teda, 1.70 for Qingdao Youth Island — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Qingdao Youth Island in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Stats

Across 17 matches this season, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 6D 7L. Their scoring output is 1.3 per match with 1.3 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 3-0 (A). Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 4 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 17 games (18%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 1 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.

Qingdao Youth Island have played 18 games this season, recording 5W 9D 4L. Their scoring output is 1.2 per match with 1.6 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 2-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: – (H) / 5-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 7 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 18 games (17%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 2 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-1-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.11 reds per game.

Tianjin Teda lead on clean sheets this season (4 vs 3). Penalty activity: Tianjin Teda 4/5 vs Qingdao Youth Island 3/5 this season.

Where They Stand

The standings have Qingdao Youth Island (6th, 24 pts) 9 places above Tianjin Teda (15th, 8 pts) — a 16-point gap in Super League.

On home turf, Tianjin Teda's Super League record reads 2W 3D 4L this term. Qingdao Youth Island have gone 2W 3D 4L on their travels. Tianjin Teda: Relegation - League One.

Trading Data

Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Qingdao Youth Island goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 55% versus Qingdao Youth Island 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 53% | Qingdao Youth Island 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.75 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.911 / defence 0.965 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.902 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 47 Tianjin Teda games / 48 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 50% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 26%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Qingdao Youth Island 3.85. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 70% | Qingdao Youth Island 60% BTTS from recent games.

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