Dalian Zhixing 1-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beijing Guoan (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dalian Zhixing face Beijing Guoan.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dalian Zhixing host Beijing Guoan at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 August 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Dalian Zhixing — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Zhixing's home record at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Dalian Zhixing are significantly better at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beijing Guoan stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Super League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Beijing Guoan's 2.40 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Dalian Zhixing's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dalian Zhixing register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Beijing Guoan in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Beijing Guoan have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Dalian Zhixing.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2026, ended 0–3 with Beijing Guoan winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Beijing Guoan have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Dalian Zhixing in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Beijing Guoan in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Zhixing 50% versus Beijing Guoan 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Zhixing 44% | Beijing Guoan 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.47 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 1.021 / defence 0.984 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.347 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.715 / away 1.388. Beijing Guoan have an above-average attack strength of 1.347 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Dalian Zhixing games / 54 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 31% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 46%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 3.23 | Draw 4.35 | Beijing Guoan 2.17. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Zhixing 60% | Beijing Guoan 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 Aug 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 31% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.47 / Beijing Guoan 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 1.021 / def 0.984 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.347 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.715 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Beijing Guoan xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 11:35 on Friday 28 August 2026 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan?
Dalian Zhixing 1 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 31% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 46% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan?
Record (3 meetings): Dalian Zhixing 0W | Draws 0 | Beijing Guoan 3W.
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan in?
Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dalian Zhixing's attack rating (1.02) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Dalian Zhixing's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
31%
3.23
23%
4.42
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
3.31
1.84
Beijing Guoan xG
3.23
31%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
16%
6.30
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
5%
20.36
11%
9.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.84 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Dalian Zhixing have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 20W 12D 22L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dalian Zhixing is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan's form line: 28W 14D 12L from 54 games, 1.81 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beijing Guoan are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dalian Zhixing.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dalian Zhixing have posted 1.92 PPG from 26 outings (16W 2D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Dalian Zhixing are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 12W 8D 6L from 26 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Dalian Zhixing are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 2.17 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan in 65%.
Last 54 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Dalian Zhixing have gone 20W 12D 22L in their last 54 games (1.33 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 28W 14D 12L in their last 54 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Zhixing at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Dalian Zhixing's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Zhixing at home: 1.92 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2026, when Beijing Guoan won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dalian Zhixing's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dalian Zhixing
1
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan?
From 4 meetings on record, Dalian Zhixing have won 0, Beijing Guoan have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Dalian Zhixing 1-1 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Zhixing 35%, Beijing Guoan 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Dalian Zhixing) and 65% (Beijing Guoan).
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Beijing Guoan in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Zhixing play Beijing Guoan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Dalian Zhixing's recent matches and 58% of Beijing Guoan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Dalian Zhixing's recent games and 65% of Beijing Guoan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Dalian Zhixing have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 25, as Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.47 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.84 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Beijing Guoan landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 1.02 / defence 0.98 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.35 / defence 0.84, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 31% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 46%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Zhixing 44%, Beijing Guoan 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.