Poisson model favours Beijing Guoan (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dalian Zhixing face Beijing Guoan.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dalian Zhixing host Beijing Guoan at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 August 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Dalian Zhixing — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Zhixing's home record at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Dalian Zhixing are significantly better at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beijing Guoan stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Beijing Guoan's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Dalian Zhixing's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Beijing Guoan have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Dalian Zhixing.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2026, ended 0–3 with Beijing Guoan winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Beijing Guoan have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Season Statistics
Dalian Zhixing's full-season record stands at 8W 1D 8L from 17 games. They average 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-4 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 2 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 17 games (18%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game.
Table Standings
In the Super League table, Dalian Zhixing sit 3rd on 25 points, 4 places and 4 points ahead of Beijing Guoan in 7th.
On home turf, Dalian Zhixing's Super League record reads 6W 0D 3L this term. Away from home, Beijing Guoan have posted 3W 3D 2L in Super League this season.
In-Play Profile
Dalian Zhixing in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Beijing Guoan in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Zhixing 47% versus Beijing Guoan 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Zhixing 45% | Beijing Guoan 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.55 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 1.006 / defence 1.121 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.086 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 47 Dalian Zhixing games / 47 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 36% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 41%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 2.78 | Draw 4.35 | Beijing Guoan 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Zhixing 50% | Beijing Guoan 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 Aug 2026, 11:35 UTC • Managers: Dalian Zhixing (Li Guoxu) | Beijing Guoan (Quique Setién) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (4 meetings): Dalian Zhixing 0W | Draws 1 | Beijing Guoan 3W • Goals trend: 3.25 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Dalian Zhixing 3 – 10 Beijing Guoan • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Dalian Zhixing 0% / Draw 25% / Beijing Guoan 75% • Historical edge: Beijing Guoan dominant — 3W from 4 meetings (75% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — Beijing Guoan favoured. H2H win rate 75%, Poisson win probability 41% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.25 goals/game (50% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.21 (62% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 64% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W • Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W • Dalian Zhixing home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | CS 4 • Beijing Guoan away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | CS 4 • Form edge: Beijing Guoan lead by 0.80 PPG (1.80 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (Dalian Zhixing): Poisson xG of 1.55 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.60 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Beijing Guoan): Poisson xG of 1.66 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.70 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.3 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.21 (62% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 64% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Beijing Guoan — Beijing Guoan at 41% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 36% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.55 / Beijing Guoan 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 1.006 / def 1.121 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.086 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Beijing Guoan xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan is scheduled to kick off at 11:35 on Friday 28 August 2026 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 36% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan?
• Record (4 meetings): Dalian Zhixing 0W | Draws 1 | Beijing Guoan 3W • Goals trend: 3.25 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Dalian Zhixing 3 – 10 Beijing Guoan • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Dalian Zhixing 0% / Draw 25% / Beijing Guoan 75% • Historical edge: Beijing Guoan dominant — 3W from 4 meetings (75% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — Beijing Guoan favoured. H2H win rate 75%, Poisson win probability 41% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.25 goals/game (50% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.21 (62% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 64% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Beijing Guoan in?
• Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W • Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W • Dalian Zhixing home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | CS 4 • Beijing Guoan away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | CS 4 • Form edge: Beijing Guoan lead by 0.80 PPG (1.80 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (Dalian Zhixing): Poisson xG of 1.55 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.60 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Beijing Guoan): Poisson xG of 1.66 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.70 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.3 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.21 (62% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 64% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Beijing Guoan — Beijing Guoan at 41% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture