Qingdao Jonoon 1-5 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 47%, yet in-form Wuhan Three Towns provide a compelling counter-argument — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns meet at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 09:00 UTC.
Form
Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 5W 2D 3L at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Wuhan Three Towns have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Wuhan Three Towns are 0.70 PPG clear of Qingdao Jonoon in recent Super League fixtures (1.10 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Qingdao Jonoon, 4 for Wuhan Three Towns and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2026, ended 3–1 with Qingdao Jonoon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Qingdao Jonoon — key trading statistics (52 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Wuhan Three Towns — key trading statistics (52 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 58% versus Wuhan Three Towns 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 50% | Wuhan Three Towns 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.68 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.889 / defence 0.944 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.977 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.387. Data: 54 Qingdao Jonoon games / 52 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 47% | Draw 24% | Wuhan Three Towns 29%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Wuhan Three Towns 3.45. Qingdao Jonoon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Qingdao Jonoon are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wuhan Three Towns (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 50% | Wuhan Three Towns 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 09:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 47% | Draw 24% | Wuhan Three Towns 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.68 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.889 / def 0.944 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.977 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.694 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Wuhan Three Towns xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 09:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Qingdao Jonoon 1 - 5 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 47% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (7 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 2W | Draws 1 | Wuhan Three Towns 4W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Qingdao Jonoon's attack at 0.89x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wuhan Three Towns's attack (0.98x) against Qingdao Jonoon's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 54/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
47%
2.14
24%
4.18
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.96
1.28
Wuhan Three Towns xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
5%
18.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.28 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Qingdao Jonoon come into this having played 52 games, going 11W 12D 29L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wuhan Three Towns sit at 0.88 PPG from 52 outings (10W 16D 26L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.87 PPG for Qingdao Jonoon against 0.88 for Wuhan Three Towns. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Qingdao Jonoon's home form reads 9W 7D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.87 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Wuhan Three Towns have taken 0.58 points per game from 24 outings (2W 8D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Jonoon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 1.23 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns in 62%.
Last 52 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 11W 12D 29L in their last 52 games (0.87 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 10W 16D 26L in their last 52 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.42 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wuhan Three Towns won 1-5 on 29 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Wuhan Three Towns — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Qingdao Jonoon
1
Draws
5
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 8 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Wuhan Three Towns have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 1-5 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 54%, Wuhan Three Towns 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 67% (Wuhan Three Towns).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 29% of games; Wuhan Three Towns in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Wuhan Three Towns?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Qingdao Jonoon's games and 71% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 67% of Wuhan Three Towns's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wuhan Three Towns run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Qingdao Jonoon 1-5 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.68 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.28 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns outscored their 1.28 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.89 / defence 0.94 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.98 / defence 1.12, drawn from 54/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 47% | Draw 24% | Wuhan Three Towns 29%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Wuhan Three Towns win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 50%, Wuhan Three Towns 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (52 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (52 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.87 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wuhan Three Towns win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.