Sichuan Jiuniu 0-1 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG make the trip to Shenzhen Stadium to face Sichuan Jiuniu in Super League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Sichuan Jiuniu (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sichuan Jiuniu's home record at Shenzhen Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SHANGHAI SIPG have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sichuan Jiuniu have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to SHANGHAI SIPG, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SHANGHAI SIPG have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Sichuan Jiuniu half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
SHANGHAI SIPG half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sichuan Jiuniu 57% and SHANGHAI SIPG 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sichuan Jiuniu 63% | SHANGHAI SIPG 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.92 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.065 / defence 0.964 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.235 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.715 / away 1.388. SHANGHAI SIPG have an above-average attack strength of 1.235 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 54 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 45% | Draw 22% | SHANGHAI SIPG 34%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.22 | Draw 4.55 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.94. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sichuan Jiuniu as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.57 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 60% | SHANGHAI SIPG 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Shenzhen Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 45% | Draw 22% | SHANGHAI SIPG 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.92 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.065 / def 0.964 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.235 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.715 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.65
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 28 August 2026 at Shenzhen Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Sichuan Jiuniu 0 - 1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 45% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 34% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (5 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 0W | Draws 1 | SHANGHAI SIPG 4W.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sichuan Jiuniu's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against SHANGHAI SIPG's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (1.24x) against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
45%
2.24
22%
4.58
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.57
1.65
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
15%
6.83
Win to Nil
9%
11.71
5%
20.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.65 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Sichuan Jiuniu have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 16W 6D 32L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form line: 29W 13D 12L from 54 games, 1.85 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SHANGHAI SIPG are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sichuan Jiuniu.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 1.48 PPG from 27 outings (12W 4D 11L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Sichuan Jiuniu are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 15W 5D 7L from 27 away games — 1.85 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 2.06 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG in 80%.
Last 54 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 16W 6D 32L in their last 54 games (1.00 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 29W 13D 12L in their last 54 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 1.48 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 0-6 on 5 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
1
Draws
5
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 6 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 0-1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Sichuan Jiuniu, 82% for SHANGHAI SIPG — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Sichuan Jiuniu and 78% for SHANGHAI SIPG. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 63% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sichuan Jiuniu play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Sichuan Jiuniu's games and 82% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Sichuan Jiuniu's matches and 78% of SHANGHAI SIPG's.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Sichuan Jiuniu have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SHANGHAI SIPG defy the odds to beat Sichuan Jiuniu 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Sichuan Jiuniu 0-1 at Shenzhen Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.92 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.65 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sichuan Jiuniu fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.24 / defence 1.05, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 45% | Draw 22% | SHANGHAI SIPG 34%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual SHANGHAI SIPG win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 63%, SHANGHAI SIPG 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.