Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG make the trip to to face Sichuan Jiuniu in Super League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Sichuan Jiuniu (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sichuan Jiuniu's home record at : 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sichuan Jiuniu are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
SHANGHAI SIPG have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sichuan Jiuniu have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to SHANGHAI SIPG, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SHANGHAI SIPG have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Season Stats
The hosts have accumulated 6W 2D 10L from their 18 Super League appearances this term. Their scoring output is 1.4 per match with 1.7 conceded on average. Biggest win: 5-2 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 3-4 (H) / 5-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 5 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 18 games (22%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-1-4-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.17 reds per game.
SHANGHAI SIPG have played 17 games this season, recording 5W 5D 7L. Their scoring output is 1.5 per match with 1.4 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 3-1 (A). Longest draw run: 3 games. They have failed to score in 2 games this season. 2 clean sheets this season (1 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 17 games (12%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards per game, 0.18 reds per game.
Sichuan Jiuniu lead on clean sheets this season (3 vs 2). Penalty activity: Sichuan Jiuniu 2/2 vs SHANGHAI SIPG 1/1 this season.
League Table
Sichuan Jiuniu hold the table advantage, sitting 9th with 20 points — 3 positions and 5 points clear of SHANGHAI SIPG in 12th.
At home this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 5W 1D 4L. On the road, SHANGHAI SIPG's record stands at 2W 2D 5L this term.
Trading
Sichuan Jiuniu half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
SHANGHAI SIPG half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sichuan Jiuniu 57% and SHANGHAI SIPG 81% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sichuan Jiuniu 64% | SHANGHAI SIPG 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.81 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.099 / defence 1.055 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.984 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 48 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 47 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 47% | Draw 23% | SHANGHAI SIPG 30%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | SHANGHAI SIPG 3.33. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sichuan Jiuniu as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 60% | SHANGHAI SIPG 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 28 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC • Managers: Sichuan Jiuniu (C. Lattanzio) | SHANGHAI SIPG (K. Muscat) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (5 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 0W | Draws 1 | SHANGHAI SIPG 4W • Goals trend: 3.40 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Sichuan Jiuniu 3 – 14 SHANGHAI SIPG • H2H markets: BTTS 60% | Over 2.5 60% | Win rates: Sichuan Jiuniu 0% / Draw 20% / SHANGHAI SIPG 80% • Historical edge: SHANGHAI SIPG dominant — 4W from 5 meetings (80% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours SHANGHAI SIPG (historical win rate 80%) but Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu as more likely (home 47% / draw 23% / away 30%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.40 goals/game (60% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.22 (62% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 60%, Poisson probability 63% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W • SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L • Sichuan Jiuniu home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • SHANGHAI SIPG away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | CS 2 • Form edge: minimal separation (Sichuan Jiuniu 1.10 PPG vs SHANGHAI SIPG 1.30 PPG) • xG vs form (Sichuan Jiuniu): Poisson xG of 1.81 aligns with form scoring rate of 2.00 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (SHANGHAI SIPG): Poisson projects 1.41 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.10 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.3 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.22 (62% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Sichuan Jiuniu 6/10, SHANGHAI SIPG 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 63% — all signals aligned
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 47% | Draw 23% | SHANGHAI SIPG 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.81 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.099 / def 1.055 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.984 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.41
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Friday 28 August 2026.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 47% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and SHANGHAI SIPG?
• Record (5 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 0W | Draws 1 | SHANGHAI SIPG 4W • Goals trend: 3.40 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Sichuan Jiuniu 3 – 14 SHANGHAI SIPG • H2H markets: BTTS 60% | Over 2.5 60% | Win rates: Sichuan Jiuniu 0% / Draw 20% / SHANGHAI SIPG 80% • Historical edge: SHANGHAI SIPG dominant — 4W from 5 meetings (80% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours SHANGHAI SIPG (historical win rate 80%) but Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu as more likely (home 47% / draw 23% / away 30%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.40 goals/game (60% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.22 (62% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 60%, Poisson probability 63% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
• Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W • SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L • Sichuan Jiuniu home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • SHANGHAI SIPG away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | CS 2 • Form edge: minimal separation (Sichuan Jiuniu 1.10 PPG vs SHANGHAI SIPG 1.30 PPG) • xG vs form (Sichuan Jiuniu): Poisson xG of 1.81 aligns with form scoring rate of 2.00 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (SHANGHAI SIPG): Poisson projects 1.41 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.10 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.3 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.22 (62% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Sichuan Jiuniu 6/10, SHANGHAI SIPG 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 63% — all signals aligned
What do the betting odds say about Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture