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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Henan Jianye and Chongqing Tongliang Long meet at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form

Henan Jianye (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Henan Jianye's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Chongqing Tongliang Long have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Tongliang Long, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League this season, Chongqing Tongliang Long have posted 3W 3D 3L from 9 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Henan Jianye against 1.00 for Chongqing Tongliang Long. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Henan Jianye, 0 for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Season Stats

The hosts have accumulated 6W 3D 8L from their 17 Super League appearances this term. Their scoring output is 1.1 per match with 1.3 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 17 games (6%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 1 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards per game.

Current Standings

In the Super League table, Chongqing Tongliang Long sit 2nd on 28 points, 11 places and 13 points ahead of Henan Jianye in 13th.

Henan Jianye's home record this season stands at 3W 1D 4L. Away from home, Chongqing Tongliang Long have posted 3W 3D 3L in Super League this season. Chongqing Tongliang Long: Promotion - AFC Champions League 2.

Trading

Henan Jianye half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Chongqing Tongliang Long half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 56% versus Chongqing Tongliang Long 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 56% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.19 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.763 / defence 0.983 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.787 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Henan Jianye's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Henan Jianye games / 18 Chongqing Tongliang Long games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 39% | Draw 29% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 32%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Henan Jianye 50% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 56%.

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