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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun encounter.

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Match Analysis

Beijing Guoan host Yunnan Yukun at in Super League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Beijing Guoan — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 5W 2D 3L at — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Yunnan Yukun stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Yunnan Yukun's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Beijing Guoan are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Team Stats

Across 18 matches this season, Yunnan Yukun have gone 7W 3D 8L. Attacking returns: 1.9 goals per game; defensive: 1.8 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 4-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 2 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 18 games (33%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-3. Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards per game, 0.06 reds per game.

Table Standings

In the Super League table, Yunnan Yukun sit 5th on 24 points, 2 places and 3 points ahead of Beijing Guoan in 7th.

On home turf, Beijing Guoan's Super League record reads 4W 2D 3L this term. Away from home, Yunnan Yukun have posted 3W 2D 5L in Super League this season.

Trading Patterns

Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Yunnan Yukun in-play and half-time data (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 64% and Yunnan Yukun 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Beijing Guoan 66% | Yunnan Yukun 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.15 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.073 / defence 0.956 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.211 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Yunnan Yukun have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Beijing Guoan games / 48 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 51% | Draw 21% | Yunnan Yukun 28%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.96 | Draw 4.76 | Yunnan Yukun 3.57. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 70% | Yunnan Yukun 90% BTTS from recent games.

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