Hangzhou Greentown 1-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hangzhou Greentown face Tianjin Teda.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown host Tianjin Teda at Huzhou Olympic Sports Centre in Super League (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 10 May 2026 at 12:35 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hangzhou Greentown stand at 2W 7D 1L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 3W 6D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Tianjin Teda — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Tianjin Teda have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hangzhou Greentown 1.30 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 60% of Tianjin Teda's (from Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 home games and Tianjin Teda's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 3 for Tianjin Teda and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2025, ended Hangzhou Greentown 2–0 Tianjin Teda — a Hangzhou Greentown win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 67% and Tianjin Teda 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hangzhou Greentown 77% | Tianjin Teda 58%). Note also that Tianjin Teda surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Hangzhou Greentown recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.31 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.835 / defence 0.835 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.172 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.675 / away 1.208. Data: built from Hangzhou Greentown's last 40 games and Tianjin Teda's last 40.
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 39% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 33%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.56 | Draw 3.56 | Tianjin Teda 3.04. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 home games and Tianjin Teda's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hangzhou Greentown 80% (last 10 home games) | Tianjin Teda 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, matchday 11 | Venue: Huzhou Olympic Sports Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 12:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 39% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.31 / Tianjin Teda 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.835 / def 0.835 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.172 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.675 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Tianjin Teda xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda FAQs
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:35 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Hangzhou Greentown 1 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Huzhou Olympic Sports Centre.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda is a Super League fixture (matchday 11) (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 39% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 0.83x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hangzhou Greentown's last 40 games and Tianjin Teda's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
39%
2.56
28%
3.56
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.49
1.18
Tianjin Teda xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
9%
11.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.18 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 21W 17D 22L from 60 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-D in the last five.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 24W 14D 22L across 60 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hangzhou Greentown on 1.33 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 14W 11D 5L from their last 30 home games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Hangzhou Greentown are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 9W 5D 16L across their last 30 away games, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.40 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown (Home) vs Tianjin Teda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda Form FAQs
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 24W 14D 22L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.77 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Hangzhou Greentown
1
Draws
4
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, Tianjin Teda have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Tianjin Teda 2-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hangzhou Greentown at 80%, Tianjin Teda at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Hangzhou Greentown and 70% for Tianjin Teda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 70% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Tianjin Teda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 70% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 70% of Tianjin Teda's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 93% of Tianjin Teda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Huzhou Olympic Sports Centre, Regular Season - 11, as Hangzhou Greentown and Tianjin Teda drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.31 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.18 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.83 / defence 0.83 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.17 / defence 0.94, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 39% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 33%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 77%, Tianjin Teda 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.