Dalian Zhixing 3-2 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Zhixing at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dalian Zhixing and Wuhan Three Towns meet at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 July 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Current Form
Dalian Zhixing's overall Super League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Zhixing's home record at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Dalian Zhixing are significantly better at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Wuhan Three Towns (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Three Towns away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Dalian Zhixing, 0.90 for Wuhan Three Towns — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Dalian Zhixing 0W, Wuhan Three Towns 1W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 1–4 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dalian Zhixing — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Wuhan Three Towns — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Zhixing 46% versus Wuhan Three Towns 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Zhixing 44% | Wuhan Three Towns 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.90 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.953 / defence 1.072 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.937 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.386. Data: 46 Dalian Zhixing games / 46 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 49% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Three Towns 28%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 2.04 | Draw 4.55 | Wuhan Three Towns 3.57. Dalian Zhixing hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dalian Zhixing are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalian Zhixing if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Zhixing 40% | Wuhan Three Towns 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jul 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 49% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Three Towns 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.90 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.953 / def 1.072 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.937 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.672 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Dalian Zhixing (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Wuhan Three Towns xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 11:35 on Saturday 4 July 2026 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Dalian Zhixing 3 - 2 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 49% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dalian Zhixing the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (3 meetings): Dalian Zhixing 0W | Draws 2 | Wuhan Three Towns 1W.
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dalian Zhixing's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Wuhan Three Towns's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. Flip it around — Wuhan Three Towns's attack (0.94x) against Dalian Zhixing's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Zhixing Win
49%
2.03
22%
4.47
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
3.29
1.39
Wuhan Three Towns xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
4%
23.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.39 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dalian Zhixing's recent record stands at 16W 10D 20L from 46 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Dalian Zhixing is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Three Towns, meanwhile, have gone 8W 14D 24L across 46 games — 0.83 PPG, with D-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dalian Zhixing by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wuhan Three Towns heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dalian Zhixing have managed 13W 2D 8L from 23 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Dalian Zhixing are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record stands at 2W 7D 14L across 23 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dalian Zhixing come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dalian Zhixing are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 1.22 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns in 63%.
Last 46 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Dalian Zhixing have gone 16W 10D 20L in their last 46 games (1.26 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 8W 14D 24L in their last 46 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Zhixing at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Dalian Zhixing's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Zhixing at home: 1.78 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wuhan Three Towns won 4-1 on 13 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Zhixing have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Wuhan Three Towns — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dalian Zhixing
2
Draws
1
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 4 meetings on record, Dalian Zhixing have won 1, Wuhan Three Towns have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Dalian Zhixing 3-2 Wuhan Three Towns.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Zhixing 30%, Wuhan Three Towns 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Dalian Zhixing) and 65% (Wuhan Three Towns).
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Dalian Zhixing have failed to score in 26% of games; Wuhan Three Towns in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Zhixing play Wuhan Three Towns?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Dalian Zhixing's recent matches and 65% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Dalian Zhixing's recent games and 65% of Wuhan Three Towns's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Zhixing and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Dalian Zhixing have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dalian Zhixing edge out Wuhan Three Towns 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Zhixing beat Wuhan Three Towns 3-2 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.90 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.39 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Dalian Zhixing beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.95 / defence 1.07 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.94 / defence 1.19, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 49% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Three Towns 28%, with Dalian Zhixing to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Zhixing 44%, Wuhan Three Towns 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dalian Zhixing arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.83. That form edge translated into the three points. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.