Dalian Zhixing 3-1 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Zhixing at 43%, yet in-form Shandong Luneng provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dalian Zhixing vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Dalian Zhixing welcome Shandong Luneng to Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 July 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Betting Odds
The market has installed Dalian Zhixing as the clear favourite — Dalian Zhixing 2.12 (implied 44%), Draw 3.69 (25%), Shandong Luneng 3.03 (implied 31%).
Form Guide
Dalian Zhixing — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Zhixing's home record at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Dalian Zhixing are significantly better at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Shandong Luneng have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shandong Luneng have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Shandong Luneng's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Dalian Zhixing's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Dalian Zhixing, 1 for Shandong Luneng and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Dalian Zhixing winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Dalian Zhixing in-play and half-time data (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Shandong Luneng in-play and half-time data (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dalian Zhixing 47% and Shandong Luneng 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Zhixing 45% | Shandong Luneng 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.85 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.998 / defence 1.116 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.068 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.367. Data: 47 Dalian Zhixing games / 48 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 43% | Draw 22% | Shandong Luneng 34%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 2.33 | Draw 4.55 | Shandong Luneng 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dalian Zhixing at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shandong Luneng (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The model's read is broadly in line with the market at 2.12 (fair-implied 44% vs Poisson 43%). With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalian Zhixing offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.48 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting. The market (1.50, fair-implied 62%) is broadly in line with the Poisson probability.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Zhixing 50% | Shandong Luneng 60% BTTS from recent games. Market pricing (1.45, fair-implied 64%) is broadly in line with the Poisson read on BTTS.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jul 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 43% | Draw 22% | Shandong Luneng 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.85 / Shandong Luneng 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.998 / def 1.116 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.068 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Dalian Zhixing (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• 1X2 market: Dalian Zhixing 2.12 (impl 44%) | Draw 3.69 (impl 25%) | Shandong Luneng 3.03 (impl 31%) • Market favourite: Dalian Zhixing at 2.12 • Poisson vs market alignment: both point to Dalian Zhixing — Poisson 43% vs market implied 44% — tight pricing suggests an efficient market; no meaningful edge detected • Goals market: Over 2.5 1.50 (impl 67%) / Under 2.5 2.48 (impl 40%) | Poisson Over 2.5 probability 68% • BTTS market: BTTS Yes 1.45 (impl 69%) / No 2.58 (impl 39%) | Poisson BTTS probability 68%
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Shandong Luneng xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 11:35 on Saturday 18 July 2026 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs Shandong Luneng?
Dalian Zhixing 3 - 1 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 43% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 34% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dalian Zhixing the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Shandong Luneng?
Record (3 meetings): Dalian Zhixing 2W | Draws 0 | Shandong Luneng 1W.
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Shandong Luneng in?
Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Dalian Zhixing vs Shandong Luneng?
1X2 market: Dalian Zhixing 2.12 (impl 44%) | Draw 3.69 (impl 25%) | Shandong Luneng 3.03 (impl 31%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dalian Zhixing's attack rating (1.00) and Shandong Luneng's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Dalian Zhixing's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Zhixing Win
43%
2.31
22%
4.46
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
3.48
1.63
Shandong Luneng xG
2.31
43%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
16%
6.36
Win to Nil
9%
11.75
5%
18.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.63 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dalian Zhixing come into this having played 47 games, going 17W 10D 20L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Dalian Zhixing is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shandong Luneng sit at 1.74 PPG from 47 outings (24W 10D 13L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Dalian Zhixing — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dalian Zhixing's home form reads 14W 2D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Dalian Zhixing are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Shandong Luneng have taken 1.33 points per game from 24 outings (9W 5D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dalian Zhixing come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dalian Zhixing are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.19 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shandong Luneng in 74%.
Last 47 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Dalian Zhixing have gone 17W 10D 20L in their last 47 games (1.30 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 24W 10D 13L in their last 47 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Zhixing at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Dalian Zhixing's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Zhixing at home: 1.83 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dalian Zhixing and Shandong Luneng runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Dalian Zhixing have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2025, when Shandong Luneng won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dalian Zhixing's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Dalian Zhixing
0
Draws
1
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Shandong Luneng?
From 4 meetings on record, Dalian Zhixing have won 3, Shandong Luneng have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Dalian Zhixing 3-1 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Zhixing and Shandong Luneng?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Zhixing 33%, Shandong Luneng 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Dalian Zhixing) and 75% (Shandong Luneng). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Zhixing play Shandong Luneng?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Dalian Zhixing's recent matches and 75% of Shandong Luneng's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Zhixing vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Dalian Zhixing's matches and 75% of Shandong Luneng's.
Do Dalian Zhixing and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Dalian Zhixing have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dalian Zhixing cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Shandong Luneng.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Zhixing beat Shandong Luneng 3-1 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.85 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.63 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Dalian Zhixing beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 1.00 / defence 1.12 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.07 / defence 1.05, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 43% | Draw 22% | Shandong Luneng 34%, with Dalian Zhixing to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Zhixing 45%, Shandong Luneng 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with Dalian Zhixing winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.