Wuhan Three Towns 2-0 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Sichuan Jiuniu travel to Wuhan Sports Centre to take on Wuhan Three Towns. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 July 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 2W 2D 6L at Wuhan Sports Centre — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sichuan Jiuniu — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sichuan Jiuniu's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Sichuan Jiuniu's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Wuhan Three Towns's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Wuhan Three Towns, 2 for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 2–5 with Sichuan Jiuniu winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Wuhan Three Towns trading profile (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Sichuan Jiuniu trading profile (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wuhan Three Towns 64% and Sichuan Jiuniu 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 62% | Sichuan Jiuniu 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.60 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.842 / defence 1.039 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.711 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.367. Data: 47 Wuhan Three Towns games / 48 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 51% | Draw 25% | Sichuan Jiuniu 24%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Sichuan Jiuniu 4.17. Wuhan Three Towns hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wuhan Three Towns are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sichuan Jiuniu (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Wuhan Three Towns 70% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Centre • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 51% | Draw 25% | Sichuan Jiuniu 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.60 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.842 / def 1.039 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.711 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 18 July 2026 at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Wuhan Three Towns 2 - 0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 51% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (5 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 2W | Draws 1 | Sichuan Jiuniu 2W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wuhan Three Towns's attack at 0.84x the league average against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sichuan Jiuniu's attack versus Wuhan Three Towns's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
51%
1.96
25%
3.96
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.61
1.01
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
5%
20.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.01 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wuhan Three Towns's recent record stands at 8W 14D 25L from 47 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sichuan Jiuniu, meanwhile, have gone 14W 5D 28L across 47 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wuhan Three Towns on 0.81 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wuhan Three Towns have managed 6W 7D 9L from 22 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sichuan Jiuniu's away record stands at 3W 2D 17L across 22 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sichuan Jiuniu's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 1.26 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 8W 14D 25L in their last 47 games (0.81 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 14W 5D 28L in their last 47 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.14 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2024, when Wuhan Three Towns won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wuhan Three Towns's record when hosting Sichuan Jiuniu specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Wuhan Three Towns
1
Draws
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 6 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Wuhan Three Towns 2-0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 64%, Sichuan Jiuniu 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Wuhan Three Towns) and 59% (Sichuan Jiuniu). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sichuan Jiuniu in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 41% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 59% of Sichuan Jiuniu's.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wuhan Three Towns cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sichuan Jiuniu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Sichuan Jiuniu 2-0 at Wuhan Sports Centre, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.60 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.01 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sichuan Jiuniu landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.84 / defence 1.04 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.71 / defence 1.08, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 51% | Draw 25% | Sichuan Jiuniu 24%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 62%, Sichuan Jiuniu 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Three Towns 0.81 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wuhan Three Towns win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.