Poisson model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tiexi Stadium plays host to Shenyang Urban versus Chongqing Tongliang Long in Super League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 4 July 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Shenyang Urban (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shenyang Urban, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shenyang Urban have posted 4W 0D 4L at Tiexi Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Shenyang Urban are significantly better at Tiexi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chongqing Tongliang Long have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Tongliang Long, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chongqing Tongliang Long's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 2L across 7 road games this term (1.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Shenyang Urban, 1.30 for Chongqing Tongliang Long — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Shenyang Urban 2W, Chongqing Tongliang Long 3W, 0D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Chongqing Tongliang Long winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Statistical Overview
Shenyang Urban's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 5W 2D 9L from 16 matches. Attacking returns: 1.3 goals per game; defensive: 1.8 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-5 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 6 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 2 clean sheets this season (1 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 16 games (19%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-1-4-1. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.
On the season-wide numbers, Chongqing Tongliang Long show 7W 6D 3L from 16 outings in Super League. Attacking returns: 1.3 goals per game; defensive: 1.0 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 3-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 7 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 16 games (6%). Penalties this season: 0 scored / 1 missed from 1 awarded. Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards per game, 0.06 reds per game.
Chongqing Tongliang Long have kept their defensive record in better shape, conceding 1.00 per game versus 1.80 for the hosts. Chongqing Tongliang Long lead on clean sheets this season (7 vs 2). Penalty activity: Shenyang Urban 2/2 vs Chongqing Tongliang Long 0/1 this season.
Trading
Shenyang Urban half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Chongqing Tongliang Long half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenyang Urban 50% versus Chongqing Tongliang Long 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenyang Urban 69% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenyang Urban 1.21 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenyang Urban attack 0.856 / defence 1.288 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.794 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.393. Data: 16 Shenyang Urban games / 16 Chongqing Tongliang Long games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 32% | Draw 26% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 42%. Fair-value odds: Shenyang Urban 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chongqing Tongliang Long as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chongqing Tongliang Long if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Shenyang Urban 62% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Tiexi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jul 2026, 11:00 UTC • Managers: Shenyang Urban (Li Jinyu) | Chongqing Tongliang Long (Salvador Suay) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (5 meetings): Shenyang Urban 2W | Draws 0 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 3W • Goals trend: 2.60 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Shenyang Urban 7 – 6 Chongqing Tongliang Long • H2H markets: BTTS 40% | Over 2.5 40% | Win rates: Shenyang Urban 40% / Draw 0% / Chongqing Tongliang Long 60% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 32% / draw 26% / away 42% • Goals: H2H average 2.60/game (40% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.63 (49% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 40%, Poisson probability 53% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Shenyang Urban (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-L • Chongqing Tongliang Long (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W • Shenyang Urban home split: 1.50 PPG from 8 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.62 | CS 1 • Chongqing Tongliang Long away split: 1.57 PPG from 7 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | CS 3 • Form edge: minimal separation (Shenyang Urban 1.00 PPG vs Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.30 PPG) • xG vs form (Shenyang Urban): Poisson projects 1.21 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.50 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Chongqing Tongliang Long): Poisson projects 1.43 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.00 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.9 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.63 (49% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~53% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 53% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 32% | Draw 26% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Shenyang Urban 1.21 / Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Shenyang Urban attack 0.856 / def 1.288 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.794 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Chongqing Tongliang Long (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Shenyang Urban xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kick off?
Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 4 July 2026 at Tiexi Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Shenyang Urban 3 - 1 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Where is Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long being played?
The match is being played at Tiexi Stadium.
What competition is Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long part of?
Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our statistical model gives Shenyang Urban a 32% chance of winning, Chongqing Tongliang Long a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chongqing Tongliang Long the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Shenyang Urban and Chongqing Tongliang Long will score (BTTS).
Will Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
• Record (5 meetings): Shenyang Urban 2W | Draws 0 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 3W • Goals trend: 2.60 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Shenyang Urban 7 – 6 Chongqing Tongliang Long • H2H markets: BTTS 40% | Over 2.5 40% | Win rates: Shenyang Urban 40% / Draw 0% / Chongqing Tongliang Long 60% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 32% / draw 26% / away 42% • Goals: H2H average 2.60/game (40% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.63 (49% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 40%, Poisson probability 53% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Shenyang Urban and Chongqing Tongliang Long in?
• Shenyang Urban (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-L • Chongqing Tongliang Long (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W • Shenyang Urban home split: 1.50 PPG from 8 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.62 | CS 1 • Chongqing Tongliang Long away split: 1.57 PPG from 7 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | CS 3 • Form edge: minimal separation (Shenyang Urban 1.00 PPG vs Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.30 PPG) • xG vs form (Shenyang Urban): Poisson projects 1.21 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.50 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Chongqing Tongliang Long): Poisson projects 1.43 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.00 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.9 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.63 (49% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~53% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 53% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture