Shenyang Urban 3-1 Chongqing Tongliang Long – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tiexi Stadium plays host to Shenyang Urban versus Chongqing Tongliang Long in Super League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 4 July 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Shenyang Urban (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shenyang Urban, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shenyang Urban have posted 4W 0D 4L at Tiexi Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Shenyang Urban are significantly better at Tiexi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chongqing Tongliang Long have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Tongliang Long, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chongqing Tongliang Long's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 2L across 7 road games this term (1.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Shenyang Urban, 1.30 for Chongqing Tongliang Long — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Shenyang Urban 0W, Chongqing Tongliang Long 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Chongqing Tongliang Long winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Shenyang Urban half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Chongqing Tongliang Long half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenyang Urban 50% versus Chongqing Tongliang Long 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenyang Urban 69% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenyang Urban 1.21 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenyang Urban attack 0.856 / defence 1.288 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.794 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.393. Data: 16 Shenyang Urban games / 16 Chongqing Tongliang Long games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 32% | Draw 26% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 42%. Fair-value odds: Shenyang Urban 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chongqing Tongliang Long as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chongqing Tongliang Long if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Shenyang Urban 62% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 43%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Tiexi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jul 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 32% | Draw 26% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Shenyang Urban 1.21 / Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Shenyang Urban attack 0.856 / def 1.288 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.794 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Chongqing Tongliang Long (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Shenyang Urban xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kick off?
Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 4 July 2026 at Tiexi Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Shenyang Urban 3 - 1 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Where is Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long being played?
The match is being played at Tiexi Stadium.
What competition is Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long part of?
Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our statistical model gives Shenyang Urban a 32% chance of winning, Chongqing Tongliang Long a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chongqing Tongliang Long the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Shenyang Urban and Chongqing Tongliang Long will score (BTTS).
Will Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Record (1 meetings): Shenyang Urban 0W | Draws 0 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 1W.
What form are Shenyang Urban and Chongqing Tongliang Long in?
Shenyang Urban (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Chongqing Tongliang Long (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shenyang Urban's attack rating (0.86) and Chongqing Tongliang Long's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack (0.79x) against Shenyang Urban's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chongqing Tongliang Long Win
32%
3.13
26%
3.84
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Shenyang Urban xG
Total xG
2.63
1.43
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
8%
13.00
13%
7.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Shenyang Urban and Chongqing Tongliang Long expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Shenyang Urban and 1.43 for Chongqing Tongliang Long, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shenyang Urban come into this having played 16 games, going 5W 2D 9L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Shenyang Urban is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chongqing Tongliang Long sit at 1.69 PPG from 16 outings (7W 6D 3L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Chongqing Tongliang Long is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chongqing Tongliang Long carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Shenyang Urban — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shenyang Urban's home form reads 3W 0D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Chongqing Tongliang Long have taken 1.57 points per game from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shenyang Urban are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Chongqing Tongliang Long are on 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Chongqing Tongliang Long in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenyang Urban
Blended
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenyang Urban and Chongqing Tongliang Long in coming into this match?
Shenyang Urban have gone 5W 2D 9L in their last 16 games (1.06 PPG), while Chongqing Tongliang Long have gone 7W 6D 3L in their last 16 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenyang Urban at home or Chongqing Tongliang Long away?
Chongqing Tongliang Long's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenyang Urban at home: 1.29 PPG; Chongqing Tongliang Long away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Shenyang Urban or Chongqing Tongliang Long been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenyang Urban have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Chongqing Tongliang Long in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since March 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Shenyang Urban
0
Draws
1
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
From 2 meetings on record, Shenyang Urban have won 1, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenyang Urban and Chongqing Tongliang Long last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Shenyang Urban 3-1 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shenyang Urban are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Chongqing Tongliang Long see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenyang Urban 71%, Chongqing Tongliang Long 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Shenyang Urban) and 43% (Chongqing Tongliang Long). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chongqing Tongliang Long in 43%; Shenyang Urban have failed to score in 29% of games; Chongqing Tongliang Long in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenyang Urban home games / Chongqing Tongliang Long away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenyang Urban play Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Shenyang Urban's games and 43% of Chongqing Tongliang Long's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Shenyang Urban's matches and 43% of Chongqing Tongliang Long's.
Do Shenyang Urban and Chongqing Tongliang Long tend to score early?
Shenyang Urban have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Chongqing Tongliang Long in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shenyang Urban cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Chongqing Tongliang Long.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenyang Urban beat Chongqing Tongliang Long 3-1 at Tiexi Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenyang Urban 1.21 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.43 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Shenyang Urban beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenyang Urban attack 0.86 / defence 1.29 against Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.79 / defence 0.86, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenyang Urban 32% | Draw 26% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 42%, with Chongqing Tongliang Long to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Shenyang Urban win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenyang Urban 69%, Chongqing Tongliang Long 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenyang Urban's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Chongqing Tongliang Long's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chongqing Tongliang Long arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Shenyang Urban winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shenyang Urban (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Chongqing Tongliang Long (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.