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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Sichuan Jiuniu travel to TEDA Football Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 July 2026, 12:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 1W 4D 5L at TEDA Football Stadium — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Sichuan Jiuniu — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sichuan Jiuniu's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Tianjin Teda at 1.00 PPG versus Sichuan Jiuniu's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Key Season Stats

On the season-wide numbers, Tianjin Teda show 3W 6D 7L from 16 outings in Super League. Their scoring output is 1.2 per match with 1.4 conceded on average. Biggest win: 1-0 (H) / 0-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 3-0 (A). Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 16 games (12%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 1 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.

Sichuan Jiuniu's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 5W 2D 9L from 16 matches. Their scoring output is 1.4 per match with 1.8 conceded on average. Biggest win: 5-2 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 3-4 (H) / 5-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 2 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 16 games (19%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.19 reds per game.

Tianjin Teda have the superior defensive numbers, conceding 1.40 per game against Sichuan Jiuniu's 1.80. Tianjin Teda lead on clean sheets this season (3 vs 2). Penalty activity: Tianjin Teda 4/5 vs Sichuan Jiuniu 2/2 this season.

In-Play Data

Tianjin Teda trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Sichuan Jiuniu trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 56% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 52% | Sichuan Jiuniu 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.36 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.805 / defence 1.046 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.788 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.374. Data: 46 Tianjin Teda games / 46 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 42% | Draw 27% | Sichuan Jiuniu 31%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Sichuan Jiuniu 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 80% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% BTTS from recent games.

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