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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

plays host to Beijing Guoan versus Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 1 August 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Beijing Guoan have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Beijing Guoan's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Beijing Guoan 4W, Hangzhou Greentown 3W, 3D.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Current Standings

In the Super League table, Beijing Guoan sit 7th on 21 points, 4 places and 4 points ahead of Hangzhou Greentown in 11th.

Beijing Guoan's home record this season stands at 4W 2D 3L. Away from home, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 3W 1D 5L in Super League this season.

Trading

Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Hangzhou Greentown half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 64% and Hangzhou Greentown 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Beijing Guoan 66% | Hangzhou Greentown 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.17 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.073 / defence 0.956 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.051 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 47 Beijing Guoan games / 47 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 56% | Draw 21% | Hangzhou Greentown 24%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.79 | Draw 4.76 | Hangzhou Greentown 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.53 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 70% | Hangzhou Greentown 50% BTTS from recent games.

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