Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Sichuan Jiuniu versus Chongqing Tongliang Long in Super League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 1 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sichuan Jiuniu have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sichuan Jiuniu at this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sichuan Jiuniu are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Chongqing Tongliang Long (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Tongliang Long, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chongqing Tongliang Long away from home this season: 3W 3D 3L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Sichuan Jiuniu, 1.00 for Chongqing Tongliang Long — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Statistical Overview
Sichuan Jiuniu's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 6W 2D 10L from 18 matches. Attacking returns: 1.4 goals per game; defensive: 1.7 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 5-2 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 3-4 (H) / 5-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 5 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 18 games (22%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-1-4-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.17 reds per game.
On the season-wide numbers, Chongqing Tongliang Long show 7W 7D 4L from 18 outings in Super League. They average 1.2 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 3-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 7 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 18 games (6%). Penalties this season: 0 scored / 1 missed from 1 awarded. Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards per game, 0.11 reds per game.
Chongqing Tongliang Long have kept their defensive record in better shape, conceding 1.10 per game versus 1.70 for the hosts. Chongqing Tongliang Long lead on clean sheets this season (7 vs 3). Sichuan Jiuniu score 2+ goals far more often (22% vs 6%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Sichuan Jiuniu 2/2 vs Chongqing Tongliang Long 0/1 this season.
League Table
Chongqing Tongliang Long hold the table advantage, sitting 2nd with 28 points — 7 positions and 8 points clear of Sichuan Jiuniu in 9th.
On home turf, Sichuan Jiuniu's Super League record reads 5W 1D 4L this term. Chongqing Tongliang Long have gone 3W 3D 3L on their travels. Chongqing Tongliang Long: Promotion - AFC Champions League 2.
Trading
Sichuan Jiuniu half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Chongqing Tongliang Long half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 56% versus Chongqing Tongliang Long 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 56% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.72 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.099 / defence 1.055 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.787 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 48 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 18 Chongqing Tongliang Long games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 51% | Draw 24% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 25%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 4.00. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sichuan Jiuniu at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 60% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 56% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC • Managers: Sichuan Jiuniu (C. Lattanzio) | Chongqing Tongliang Long (Salvador Suay) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W • Chongqing Tongliang Long (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D • Sichuan Jiuniu home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • Chongqing Tongliang Long away split: 1.33 PPG from 9 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.22 | CS 3 • Form edge: minimal separation (Sichuan Jiuniu 1.10 PPG vs Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.00 PPG) • xG vs form (Sichuan Jiuniu): Poisson projects 1.72 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.00 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Chongqing Tongliang Long): Poisson xG of 1.13 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.85 (54% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~58% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 56% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 51% | Draw 24% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.72 / Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.099 / def 1.055 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.787 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Saturday 1 August 2026.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 51% chance of winning, Chongqing Tongliang Long a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Chongqing Tongliang Long will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Chongqing Tongliang Long in?
• Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W • Chongqing Tongliang Long (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D • Sichuan Jiuniu home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • Chongqing Tongliang Long away split: 1.33 PPG from 9 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.22 | CS 3 • Form edge: minimal separation (Sichuan Jiuniu 1.10 PPG vs Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.00 PPG) • xG vs form (Sichuan Jiuniu): Poisson projects 1.72 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.00 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Chongqing Tongliang Long): Poisson xG of 1.13 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.85 (54% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~58% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 56% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture