Sichuan Jiuniu 2-0 Chongqing Tongliang Long – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Shenzhen Stadium plays host to Sichuan Jiuniu versus Chongqing Tongliang Long in Super League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 2 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sichuan Jiuniu have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sichuan Jiuniu at Shenzhen Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Sichuan Jiuniu are significantly better at Shenzhen Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chongqing Tongliang Long (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Tongliang Long, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chongqing Tongliang Long away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Sichuan Jiuniu, 1.00 for Chongqing Tongliang Long — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sichuan Jiuniu, 1 for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Chongqing Tongliang Long winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sichuan Jiuniu half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Chongqing Tongliang Long half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 55% versus Chongqing Tongliang Long 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 55% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.75 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.100 / defence 1.050 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.715 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.361. Data: 50 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 20 Chongqing Tongliang Long games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 54% | Draw 24% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 22%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 4.55. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sichuan Jiuniu at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 60% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Shenzhen Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 54% | Draw 24% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.75 / Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.100 / def 1.050 | Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.715 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 2 August 2026 at Shenzhen Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Sichuan Jiuniu 2 - 0 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 54% chance of winning, Chongqing Tongliang Long a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Chongqing Tongliang Long will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Record (1 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 0W | Draws 0 | Chongqing Tongliang Long 1W.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Chongqing Tongliang Long in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Chongqing Tongliang Long (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sichuan Jiuniu's attack rating (1.10) and Chongqing Tongliang Long's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack (0.71x) against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 50/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
54%
1.84
24%
4.20
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
2.77
1.02
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
4%
26.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Chongqing Tongliang Long expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.02 for Chongqing Tongliang Long, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 20 outings, Sichuan Jiuniu have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 6W 2D 12L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chongqing Tongliang Long's form line: 7W 8D 5L from 20 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-L. The sample for Chongqing Tongliang Long is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Chongqing Tongliang Long are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sichuan Jiuniu.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 1.60 PPG from 10 outings (5W 1D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Sichuan Jiuniu are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Chongqing Tongliang Long have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sichuan Jiuniu come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Chongqing Tongliang Long are on 1.15 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Chongqing Tongliang Long in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Chongqing Tongliang Long in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 6W 2D 12L in their last 20 games (1.00 PPG), while Chongqing Tongliang Long have gone 7W 8D 5L in their last 20 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or Chongqing Tongliang Long away?
Sichuan Jiuniu's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 1.60 PPG; Chongqing Tongliang Long away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Sichuan Jiuniu or Chongqing Tongliang Long been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sichuan Jiuniu have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Chongqing Tongliang Long in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sichuan Jiuniu
0
Draws
1
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Chongqing Tongliang Long?
From 2 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 1, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Chongqing Tongliang Long last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 2-0 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Chongqing Tongliang Long are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sichuan Jiuniu 60%, Chongqing Tongliang Long 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Sichuan Jiuniu) and 40% (Chongqing Tongliang Long).
On the defensive side: Chongqing Tongliang Long in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Chongqing Tongliang Long away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sichuan Jiuniu play Chongqing Tongliang Long?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Sichuan Jiuniu's games and 50% of Chongqing Tongliang Long's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Sichuan Jiuniu's recent games and 40% of Chongqing Tongliang Long's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and Chongqing Tongliang Long tend to score early?
Sichuan Jiuniu have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Chongqing Tongliang Long in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sichuan Jiuniu cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Chongqing Tongliang Long.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu beat Chongqing Tongliang Long 2-0 at Shenzhen Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.75 xG and Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.02 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Chongqing Tongliang Long landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.10 / defence 1.05 against Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.71 / defence 0.93, drawn from 50/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 54% | Draw 24% | Chongqing Tongliang Long 22%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 55%, Chongqing Tongliang Long 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Chongqing Tongliang Long's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chongqing Tongliang Long arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Sichuan Jiuniu winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Chongqing Tongliang Long (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.