Chonburi FC 4-1 Rayong FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chonburi FC at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Chonburi FC welcome Rayong FC to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 5 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Chonburi FC stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Chonburi FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rayong FC — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Rayong FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Chonburi FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Chonburi FC's last 10 home games and Rayong FC's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Chonburi FC, 1 for Rayong FC and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended Chonburi FC 0–1 Rayong FC — a Rayong FC win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Rayong FC in-play and half-time data (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 56% and Rayong FC 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 44% | Rayong FC 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Chonburi FC surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Rayong FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 67% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.42 xG and Rayong FC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.878 / defence 1.036 | Rayong FC attack 0.951 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.114. Data: built from Chonburi FC's last 25 games and Rayong FC's last 54.
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 42% | Draw 32% | Rayong FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.40 | Draw 3.13 | Rayong FC 3.80. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chonburi FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Rayong FC 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 27 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 42% | Draw 32% | Rayong FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Chonburi FC 1.42 / Rayong FC 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.878 / def 1.036 | Rayong FC attack 0.951 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Rayong FC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC FAQs
What time does Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC?
Chonburi FC 4 - 1 Rayong FC.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC part of?
Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 27) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 42% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Chonburi FC and Rayong FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chonburi FC's attack rating (0.88) and Rayong FC's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rayong FC's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chonburi FC's last 25 games and Rayong FC's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
42%
2.40
32%
3.13
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.52
1.10
Rayong FC xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
6%
15.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.10 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chonburi FC's recent record stands at 8W 7D 10L from 25 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Rayong FC, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 9L across 25 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chonburi FC on 1.24 PPG, Rayong FC on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chonburi FC have managed 4W 4D 4L from their last 12 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rayong FC's away record stands at 2W 4D 6L across their last 12 away games, a 0.83 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rayong FC's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 1.48 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC in 76%.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Rayong FC
Blended
Chonburi FC (Home) vs Rayong FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chonburi FC
Blended
Rayong FC
Blended
❓ Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC Form FAQs
What form are Chonburi FC and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 8W 7D 10L in their last 25 games (1.24 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 8W 8D 9L in their last 25 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Rayong FC away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.33 PPG; Rayong FC away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2025. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Apr 2026, when Chonburi FC won Chonburi FC 4-1 Rayong FC.
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Rayong FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Chonburi FC
0
Draws
2
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Rayong FC?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Chonburi FC have won 1, Rayong FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Rayong FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Chonburi FC 2-3 Rayong FC.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Rayong FC?
Rayong FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chonburi FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Chonburi FC at 58%, Rayong FC at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Chonburi FC) and 50% (Rayong FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chonburi FC and Rayong FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Chonburi FC's games and 75% of Rayong FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Chonburi FC and Rayong FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 50% of Rayong FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Rayong FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 67% of Rayong FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chonburi FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Rayong FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Rayong FC 4-1 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.42 xG and Rayong FC 1.10 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Chonburi FC beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.04 against Rayong FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.12, drawn from 25/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 42% | Draw 32% | Rayong FC 26%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 44%, Rayong FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Rayong FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.24 PPG, Rayong FC 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Rayong FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.