Al Shabab 2-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Shabab host Al Okhdood at Al-Shabab Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 14 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Al Shabab — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Al Shabab have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Al Okhdood have recorded 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Al Shabab have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Al Shabab, 1 for Al Okhdood and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2025, ended Al Shabab 1–1 Al Okhdood — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 61% versus Al Okhdood 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 56% | Al Okhdood 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 2.01 xG and Al Okhdood 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.130 / defence 1.344 | Al Okhdood attack 0.744 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.432. Al Okhdood's attack rating of 0.744 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.43. Al Shabab's defence rating of 1.344 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Okhdood's projected output up. Data: built from Al Shabab's last 59 games and Al Okhdood's last 59.
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 51% | Draw 22% | Al Okhdood 27%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.97 | Draw 4.47 | Al Okhdood 3.71. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (2.01 / 1.43) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.45 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Al Shabab's last 10 home games and Al Okhdood's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Shabab 80% (last 10 home games) | Al Okhdood 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 51% | Draw 22% | Al Okhdood 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Al Shabab 2.01 / Al Okhdood 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.130 / def 1.344 | Al Okhdood attack 0.744 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Al Okhdood xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood FAQs
What time does Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood?
Al Shabab 2 - 0 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood is a Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 51% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al Shabab and Al Okhdood will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 1.13x the league average against Al Okhdood's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Okhdood's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Shabab's last 59 games and Al Okhdood's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
51%
1.97
22%
4.47
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
1 – 2
6.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.45
1.43
Al Okhdood xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
13%
7.49
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
4%
27.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.43 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Shabab come into this having played 59 games, going 24W 14D 21L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, Al Okhdood sit at 0.80 PPG from 59 outings (12W 11D 36L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Shabab's home form reads 14W 5D 10L across their last 29 home games, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Okhdood have taken 0.86 points per game from their last 29 away games (7W 4D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Shabab are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.93 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al Shabab (Home) vs Al Okhdood (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Shabab
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood Form FAQs
What form are Al Shabab and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 24W 14D 21L in their last 59 games (1.46 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 12W 11D 36L in their last 59 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.62 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al Okhdood specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Shabab
4
Draws
1
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Okhdood?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Shabab have won 1, Al Okhdood have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al Okhdood last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Al Shabab 2-0 Al Okhdood.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Okhdood see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 69%, Al Okhdood 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Al Shabab) and 45% (Al Okhdood). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Shabab and Al Okhdood matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Al Shabab's games and 45% of Al Okhdood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Shabab and Al Okhdood matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Al Shabab's matches and 45% of Al Okhdood's.
Do Al Shabab and Al Okhdood matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 59% of Al Okhdood's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Shabab cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al Okhdood 2-0 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 2.01 xG and Al Okhdood 1.43 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Okhdood landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.13 / defence 1.34 against Al Okhdood attack 0.74 / defence 1.17, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 51% | Draw 22% | Al Okhdood 27%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 56%, Al Okhdood 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. Al Shabab (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.