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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fateh face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.

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Match Analysis

Al-Fateh host Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Al Fateh club stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Fateh — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Al Fateh club stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh club stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have recorded 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC away from home this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Hilal Saudi FC — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

Al-Hilal Saudi FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 9 encounters against Al-Fateh's 2 victories.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 4.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 4.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).

Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 70% and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 58% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.38 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.002 / defence 1.149 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.582 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.432. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.582 — the away xG of 2.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Al-Fateh games / 59 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 18% | Draw 18% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 64%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 5.56 | Draw 5.56 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (64%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.98. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.98 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 2.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.1 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 80% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.

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