Al Khaleej Saihat 0-5 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Khaleej Saihat face Al-Nassr.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Al-Nassr travel to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al Khaleej Saihat. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Khaleej Saihat — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Al Khaleej Saihat are significantly better at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 10W 0D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 3.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Nassr — 2.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Al-Nassr have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 7 encounters against Al Khaleej Saihat's 0 victories.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 1–4 with Al-Nassr winning.
It is worth noting that Al-Nassr have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Al-Nassr in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 93% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Khaleej Saihat 63% and Al-Nassr 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Khaleej Saihat 63% | Al-Nassr 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.17 xG and Al-Nassr 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.032 / defence 0.953 | Al-Nassr attack 1.470 / defence 0.743. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.432. Al-Nassr's defence strength of 0.743 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.470 — the away xG of 2.01 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 59 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 21% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 56%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 4.76 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Nassr 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.17 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 50% | Al-Nassr 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 21% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.17 / Al-Nassr 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.032 / def 0.953 | Al-Nassr attack 1.470 / def 0.743 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Al-Nassr xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr?
Al Khaleej Saihat 0 - 5 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 21% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 56% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr?
Record (7 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Nassr 6W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Al-Nassr (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Khaleej Saihat's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Al-Nassr's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
21%
4.68
22%
4.47
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
3.18
2.01
Al-Nassr xG
4.68
21%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
13%
7.43
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
3%
34.75
17%
5.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 2.01 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Al Khaleej Saihat have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 18W 13D 28L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr's form line: 41W 8D 10L from 59 games, 2.22 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 1.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Khaleej Saihat.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 1.14 PPG from 29 outings (9W 6D 14L).
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 20W 3D 6L from 29 away games — 2.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.44 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Al-Nassr in 63%.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 18W 13D 28L in their last 59 games (1.14 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 41W 8D 10L in their last 59 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.14 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Al Khaleej Saihat or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Khaleej Saihat have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Nassr have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2026, when Al-Nassr won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
1
Draws
7
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 0-5 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Khaleej Saihat see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 48%, Al-Nassr 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Al Khaleej Saihat and 76% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr in 38%; Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Al Khaleej Saihat's games and 62% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 76% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Al Khaleej Saihat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Khaleej Saihat 0-5 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.17 xG and Al-Nassr 2.01 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al-Nassr outscored their 2.01 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.03 / defence 0.95 against Al-Nassr attack 1.47 / defence 0.74, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 21% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 56%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 63%, Al-Nassr 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.