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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al-Fateh encounter.

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Full Analysis

Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City plays host to Al Okhdood versus Al-Fateh in Pro League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 16:55 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al Okhdood have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Al Okhdood have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Al Okhdood are significantly better at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City than their overall form suggests.

Al-Fateh (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fateh away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.40 PPG for Al Okhdood against 0.70 for Al-Fateh. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Al Okhdood 1W, Al-Fateh 3W, 1D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Al-Fateh winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Al Okhdood half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 50% versus Al-Fateh 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 52% | Al-Fateh 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.30 xG and Al-Fateh 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.744 / defence 1.522 | Al-Fateh attack 0.971 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.428. Al Okhdood's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Al Okhdood games / 60 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 23% | Draw 21% | Al-Fateh 56%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 4.35 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Fateh 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 2.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 50% | Al-Fateh 70% BTTS from recent games.

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