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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Al Shabab (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Riyadh face Al Shabab.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Al Riyadh welcome Al Shabab to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Riyadh have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Riyadh's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Shabab have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Shabab are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al Shabab have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Al Riyadh.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2026, ended 1–3 with Al Shabab winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Shabab have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Al Riyadh trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Al Shabab trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 58% versus Al Shabab 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 53% | Al Shabab 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.07 xG and Al Shabab 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.812 / defence 0.926 | Al Shabab attack 0.880 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.410. Data: 60 Al Riyadh games / 60 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 34% | Draw 29% | Al Shabab 37%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Al Shabab 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Riyadh 70% | Al Shabab 40%.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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